Box Office Estimates for March 6-8

Todd Thatcher

Spring has sprung on FML as we move onward with the hope of a dominant season. Todd from toddmthatcher.com here bringing you my take on Week 1 and congratulations to the 231 of you who bested me in the Awards frame. We have Pixar's "Onward", the sports drama "The Way Back" with Ben Affleck, and the French historical drama "Portrait of a Lady on Fire" entering the fray.


Yet while we're in Spring mode, there's still awards holdovers lingering in my lineup. Let's talk newbies first. "Onward" is the first Pixar pic to debut in the spring. Reviews are strong, but not quite near the level of their most acclaimed material. I still see an opening gross upwards of $50 million and that's enough for it to serve as anchor.


"The Way Back" is cleverly priced for an 8x play. There is certainly the possibility that it hits low double digits. If so, it could be the only film on your screen. However, I just can't get there. That said... make SURE you take a look at its Thursday preview number come Friday morning.


As for "Portrait", it's PTA isn't too impressive. Even with a decent expansion, I don't foresee it making an impact here. Same goes for "Emma".


So it's the two top newcomers along with the Best Picture winner and almost certain runner-up as filler. Here's how I have the selected features performing:


"Onward" - $54.3 million
"The Invisible Man" - $17.2 million
"Sonic the Hedgehog" - $9 million
"The Way Back" - $8.3 million
"The Call of the Wild" - $7.1 million
"Emma" - $3.6 million
"Bad Boys for Life" - $2.8 million
"Birds of Prey" - $2.4 million
"My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising" - $1.9 million
"1917" - $1.7 million
"Jumanji: The Next Level" - $1.4 million
"Brahms: The Boy II" - $1.2 million
"Fantasy Island" - $1.1 million
"Portrait of a Lady on Fire" - $793,000
"Parasite" - $705,000


So it's "Onward" and "The Way Back" along with "1917" 3x and "Parasite" 3x. What say you?