Box Office Estimates for February 21-23

Todd Thatcher

A CGI dog and a creepy porcelain boy are the newcomers coming our way this weekend as "The Call of the Wild" and "Brahms: The Boy II" premiere for our FML consideration. Todd from toddmthatcher.com bringing you my take on the frame ahead. Harrison Ford has a new furry friend not named Chewbacca in "Wild" while "Brahms" appears to be a horror sequel no one is asking for.


So that means "Sonic the Hedgehog" should easily repeat at #1. Yet how far it falls is key. Many holdovers see drops in the high 40s to 50 percent range in the post Presidents Day weekend and I expect that will hold true for Sega's blue creature. The drops may not be quite as pronounced for some former Oscar contenders and that's why I have "1917" as my BP. I expect the "Parasite" dip to be smallish as well, while sophomore outings "Fantasy Island", "The Photograph", and "Downhill" may plummet.


And here's something that doesn't occur often... my low teens projection for "Call" leaves it as my worst performer... and my anchor. There's even the possibility that "Brahms" could be an enticing 8x play, but I just can't make myself do it.


In summary, I'm certainly not sold on this lineup and it could definitely change. However, here's my current take on the 15 selections:


"Sonic the Hedgehog" - $30.2 million
"The Call of the Wild" - $14.6 million
"Birds of Prey" - $7.9 million
"Bad Boys for Life" - $6.5 million
"Brahms: The Boy II" - $5.5 million
"1917" - $4.8 million
"Fantasy Island" - $4.7 million
"The Photograph" - $4.4 million
"Parasite" - $4.2 million
"Jumanji: The Next Level" - $3.6 million
"Dolittle" - $2.9 million
"Downhill" - $2 million
"The Gentlemen" - $1.3 million
"Knives Out" - $1.2 million
"Little Women" - $885,000


So it's "Call of the Wild" and "1917" 7x as the play. What say you?