Box Office Estimates for February 14-17

Todd Thatcher

As "Birds of Prey" (or whatever it's called now) was responsible for a mediocre showing this past weekend for yours truly, those dastardly FML pricing gods are messing with my head again! Todd from toddmthatcher.com here bringing you my take on the four-day frame ahead. We have four new titles debuting: video game adaptation "Sonic the Hedgehog", romantic drama "The Photograph" with Issa Rae and Lakeith Stanfield, Blumhouse horror pic "Fantasy Island", and Julia Louis-Dreyfus and Will Ferrell in the comedic drama "Downhill".


While "Sonic" should certainly have no trouble premiering in first position, I don't have it anywhere near where it's priced for mid 50s or low 60s. Instead I'm going with high 30s and that keeps it far away from an anchor option. Though "The Photograph" certainly has breakout potential and you never know with horror flicks like "Fantasy Island", they are also priced out of my range. It's actually "Downhill" that's budgeted closest to where I believe it ends up.


So what's it mean? A "Birds" anchor despite the fact that it hurt me with its subpar opening. With the Oscars having just aired, Best Picture winner "Parasite" is slated for an understandably hefty expansion. I do have reservations with my estimate considering that it's available to rent on demand. However, a sizable increase is likely.


Here's how I have it all shaking out (and remember to include Monday this time around):


"Sonic the Hedgehog" - $38.6 million
"Birds of Prey" - $20.8 million
"The Photograph" - $16.2 million
"Fantasy Island" - $11.6 million
"Bad Boys for Life" - $9.5 million
"1917" - $8.1 million
"Dolittle" - $5.2 million
"Jumanji: The Next Level" - $5 million
"Parasite" - $4.8 million
"Downhill" - $4.5 million
"The Gentlemen" - $3 million
"Knives Out" - $1.9 million
"Little Women" - $1.8 million
"Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker" - $1.5 million
"Jojo Rabbit" - $1.4 million


And it's "Birds" (yikes) flying once again 3x along with "Bad Boys" and a 4x play of "Parasite". What say you?