Box Office Estimates for January 17-20

Todd Thatcher

In a week that started off with the Oscar picks being revealed, perhaps it's appropriate that my FML lineup consists entirely of nominees for the big show. In fact, they have 14 nods among them.


Todd from toddmthatcher.com here bringing you my take on the four-day frame ahead (remember that we count the Monday this weekend). There are two newcomers, along with Academy holdovers that should get a bump, to consider. The 2020 newbies are Will Smith and Martin Lawrence reuniting for action threequel "Bad Boys for Life" and Robert Downey Jr. in the family fantasy adventure "Dolittle".


I foresee "Bad Boys" hitting right around where FML has it priced at just under the $40 million mark. As for "Dolittle", I am actually being slightly more generous with a mid 20s haul despite a lack of buzz.


Yet those points are moot because "1917" has timed its release exquisitely. The World War I epic (with 10 Oscar nominations and the chance to win) was released wide right after its Golden Globe victory for Best Drama. Now it hits a holiday weekend off all the Academy love. I have it in a dogfight with Mrs. Smith and Lawrence for the top spot. And that leaves it as my anchor.


One wild card is "Parasite" which is another contender to take home Best Picture. The South Korean pic is slated for an expansion. My $3 million guesstimate leaves it outside of my lineup, but I'll be playing close attention to its theater count later this week.


Here's how I have the 15 selected features performing:


"Bad Boys for Life" - $38.6 million
"1917" - $38.4 million
"Dolittle" - $25.2 million
"Jumanji: The Next Level" - $12.8 million
"Just Mercy" - $10.6 million
"Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker" - $10.1 million
"Little Women" - $8.1 million
"Like a Boss" - $7 million
"Knives Out" - $5.8 million
"Frozen II" - $5.5 million
"Spies in Disguise" - $4.5 million
"Underwater" - $3.6 million
"Parasite" - $3 million
"Uncut Gems" - $2.5 million
"Bombshell" - $1.6 million


And that leaves me with a (hopefully) golden lineup of "1917" 2x along with triple plays of both "Knives Out" and "Bombshell". What say you?