Box Office Estimates for December 13-15

Todd Thatcher

Week 2 of Awards Season on FML brings us a trio of newcomers looking to kick off the holiday box office with family adventure sequel "Jumanji: The Next Level", horror remake "Black Christmas" and Clint Eastwood's drama about the falsely accused Olympic Park bomber "Richard Jewell".

Todd from breaking it all down as "Jumanji" will certainly have no trouble dislodging "Frozen II" out of its three-week perch atop the charts. How much it makes is very much in question. 2019 has been its fair share of sequelitis, but "Level" should benefit from its massively successful predecessor being out just two years ago. "Welcome to the Jungle" legged out impressively to a domestic gross of over $400 million, while the follow-up hopes to nab big bucks immediately with "Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker" on deck the following weekend (get ready to think about daily grosses). Estimates are between $40-$50 million and I'm at the higher end of the range. And that's enough to make it an anchor play.

"Black Christmas" certainly has the chance to over perform as horror titles frequently do. The second remake of the 1970s cult hit could see mid to high teens, but I'm thinking low teens is more probable. I have it just outdoing "Jewell". My projections put neither in contention for a multiple anchor play, though the latter does grab one screen.

With six films making my lineup, that's admittedly a larger number than I'm typically comfortable with. I'll keep a watchful eye on the Thursday preview numbers, bit here's how I have the selected features shaking out as of now:

"Jumanji: The Next Level" - $48.7 million
"Frozen II" - $18.9 million
"Black Christmas" - $13.1 million
"Richard Jewell" - $12.4 million
"Knives Out" - $8.1 million
"Ford v Ferrari" - $3.7 million
"Queen & Slim" - $3.6 million
"A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood" - $2.9 million
"Dark Waters" - $2.5 million
"21 Bridges" - $1.5 million
"Playing with Fire" - $1.1 million
"Midway" - $1.1 million
"Parasite" & "Jojo Rabbit" (Double Feature) - $900.000
"Joker" - $650,000
"Last Christmas" - $570,000

And that leaves me with "Jumanji" along with "Jewell", "Ford", "Queen", "Neighborhood", and "Dark Waters" 3x. What say you?