Box Office Estimates for November 29 - December 1

Todd Thatcher

As we give thanks for another glorious FML season that ends this weekend, we will partake in a tradition appropriate for the holiday... math. Ok, not so much but there's math to be done this particular frame as two newbies come to the table. We have Rian Johnson's critically acclaimed comedic murder mystery "Knives Out" and critically hailed romantic crime thriller "Queen & Slim".


Todd from www.toddmthatcher.com here bringing you my thoughts on the grand fall finale. Disney's "Frozen II" should still scorch the charts and that's why the pricing gods still have it as a daily option. First things first: let's remember that our guesstimates are still Friday to Sunday numbers, which is indeed tradition around here. It's tricky to comp the second frame of "Frozen" part deux as most November Mouse Factory behemoths debut over Turkey Day and not the weekend before. So there's serious speculation happening here as I'm projecting a mid 30s dip. That means a mid 80s gross and I'm going with a split of around 39/38/23.


As for the newcomers, I've got both under what FML is estimating for playability. Lucky for us, we will have Wednesday and Thursday numbers to feast upon. As a general rule, you can be relatively safe taking the earnings from those two days and doubling them. This should get you to around what the Friday to Sunday grosses could be.


My estimates do end up giving me a true Thanksgiving tradition... leftovers. And lots of them. Five to be exact. That's more leftovers than I'm usually accustomed to, but if there's any weekend for that...


Here's how I have the selected features performing:


"Frozen II" (Friday) - $33.2 million
"Frozen II" (Saturday) - $32 million
"Frozen II" (Sunday) - $19.2 million
"Knives Out" - $16.6 million
"Ford v Ferrari" - $12.8 million
"A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood" - $11 million
"Queen & Slim" - $6.9 million
"21 Bridges" - $5.6 million
"Playing with Fire" - $3.9 million
"Midway" - $3.6 million
"The Good Liar" - $2.8 million
"Last Christmas" - $2.4 million
"Joker" - $2 million
"Charlie's Angels" - $1.9 million
"Harriet" - $1.6 million


And that leaves me with a full plate of Saturday's "Frozen" 2x along with "Neighborhood", "Midway" 2x, "Joker", and "Harriet" 2x. What say you?