Box Office Estimates for November 8-10

Todd Thatcher

It's an FML weekend with plenty of intrigue as four new titles make their way for our consideration: "Shining" sequel "Doctor Sleep", Emilia Clarke/Henry Golding Yuletide rom com "Last Christmas", Roland Emmerich made WWII pic "Midway", and John Cena going the Dwayne Johnson family guy route in "Playing with Fire".


Todd from www.toddmthatcher.com here bringing you my take on all the action. Will "Sleep" rise with a big enough gross to be the play and make it a dull weekend? I'm skeptical as I believe it could struggle with the younger audience that typically attends horror flicks. I've got this right in the mid 20s range where it's anticipated to be.


"Midway" is an interesting one that certainly has the chance to over perform (especially with an older male audience). For now, I've got it making what "Geostorm" did. Surely it could top that...?


"Fire" looks poised for high single digits. Not too impressive, but it'll hope for strong holds if word of mouth is any good.


The highlights of last weekend were the subpar performance of "Terminator: Dark Fate" and "Harriet" coming in at the top of its spectrum. "Fate" could fall in the mid 50s while the latter may ease in the low to mid 30s (its A+ Cinemascore certainly won't hurt).


We also have the awards hopefuls and it'll be worth keeping an eye on those theater counts, especially when it comes to "Jojo Rabbit".


All in all, my mid teens projection for "Christmas" leaves it as my anchor. And I believe it might even top my forecast. Here's how I have the selected features performing:


"Doctor Sleep" - $24.8 million
"Last Christmas" - $16.9 million
"Terminator: Dark Fate" - $13.2 million
"Midway" - $13 million
"Joker" - $9.1 million
"Playing with Fire" - $7.9 million
"Harriet" - $7.6 million
"Maleficent: Mistress of Evil" - $7.2 million
"The Addams Family" - $5.2 million
"Zombieland: Double Tap" - $4 million
"Jojo Rabbit" - $3.7 million
"Countdown" - $3 million
"Parasite" - $2.6 million
"Black and Blue" - $2 million
"Motherless Brooklyn" - $1.8 million


And those numbers mean I gotta have faith in "Christmas" 3x along with "Jojo" 2x, "Parasite", and "Brooklyn" 2x. What say you?