Box Office Estimates for October 11-13

Todd Thatcher

After somehow managing to hit the PC last weekend, let's see if I can screw it up with this next frame. As the record setting "Joker" looks to repeat at #1 in the sophomore frame, we have newbies to consider going for our runner-up position. The two vying for that honor are Will Smith's sci fi action thriller "Gemini Man" and the animated version of "The Addams Family". We also have Adam DeVine in the tech comedy "Jexi" and Antonio Banderas in "Pain and Glory" (which could earn the actor his first Oscar nod). I do not expect DeVine to compete for Academy glory in "Jexi".


Todd from www.toddmthatcher.com here trying to put the puzzle together. Let's start with "Joker". The stand-alone comic book flick decimated the October opening weekend record with a startling $96 million. Now how far will it drop? Considering "Logan" and "Venom" dipped 56% each in their follow-up outings, I'd consider that the floor here. Putting it a touch closer to 60% has me playing the "Joker" just under $40 million. And that means I think it's overpriced.


Let's get "Jexi" out of the way. I have it outside the top five and not a factor. So for me... it's all about whether "Gemini" or "Addams" anchors and it's close. I have both coming on the lower end of expectations. My projections give the Fresh Prince a slight edge.


As for "Glory", theater count will be critical. Right now, I'm giving it $650,000 before more information comes in. That is enough to give it a spot in my lineup.


Here's how I have the selected features performing:


"Joker" - $39.8 million
"Gemini Man" - $24.8 million
"The Addams Family" - $21.7 million
"Abominable" - $7 million
"Downton Abbey" - $4.4 million
"Jexi" - $4.2 million
"Hustlers" - $3.7 million
"Judy" - $3.4 million
"It Chapter Two" - $3.2 million
"Ad Astra" - $2 million
"Rambo: Last Blood" - $1.7 million
"Pain and Glory" - $650,000
"Hobbs & Shaw/The Peanut Butter Falcon" (Double Feature) - $518,000
"Good Boys" - $501,000
"The Lion King" - $322,000


So it's "Gemini" in a 2x play along with "It" 4x, "Astra", and "Pain" as I go for the glory once again. What say you?