Box Office Estimates for October 4-6

Todd Thatcher

Here are our cards... a weekend where "Joker" could play tricks with our minds as we contemplate not only its opening weekend, but the daily grosses it'll post. The FML pricing gods have rightly given it that treatment as guesstimates are varying wildly for the already controversial Joaquin Phoenix led tale.


Todd from www.toddmthatcher.com here bringing you my take on the weekend ahead. First things first - I have "Joker" making $89.6 million. That's basically in the mid range of projections. Yet we aren't talking just the debut. Settling on a decent comp (not an easy task), I'm going with "Logan" from the spring of 2017 - another R-rated cinematic version of a popular comic book character. It took in $88.2 million for its start, just under where I have this landing. The dailies were $33/$31.2/$24 million.


Even if I give "Joker" a slightly more front loaded beginning, it still favors a Saturday and Sunday play. And that's due to "Judy"... Garland that is. The Renee Zellweger Oscar hopeful had an impressive start in limited fashion and it ran away with BP. It's said to be expanding to 1500 venues. If that occurs, it's my BP this weekend as well. The big caveat is keeping an eye on whether that count comes to fruition. If not, a lineup change could be in store.


As it stands now, here's how I have the selected features performing:


"Joker" (Friday) - $36.4 million
"Joker" (Saturday) - $29.7 million
"Joker" (Sunday) - $23.5 million
"Abominable" - $12.5 million
"Downton Abbey" - $8 million
"Hustlers" - $6.7 million
"Judy" - $5.9 million
"It Chapter Two" - $5.8 million
"Ad Astra" - $5.3 million
"Rambo: Last Blood" - $4.2 million
"Good Boys" - $1.4 million
"The Lion King" - $1 million
"Angel Has Fallen" - $892,000
"Hobbs & Shaw" - $832,000
"The Peanut Butter Falcon" - $727,000


And that means a Saturday and Sunday "Joker" showing with "Judy" 6x. What say you?