Box Office Estimates for September 27-29

Todd Thatcher

There's no place like honing in on the perfect FML lineup and as September draws to a close and we begin to ponder "Joker" daily pricing, we have two newbies arriving for consideration. They are Dreamworks Animation's "Abominable" and biopic "Judy", which is garnering Oscar buzz for Renee Zellweger. This in addition to the Double Feature option combining the grosses of "Good Boys" and "Angel Has Fallen".

Todd from here bringing you my take on the weekend ahead. Let's dispense with the fresh blood. I'm certainly on the lower end of projections with "Abominable" and even if it reaches mid 20s, I still don't see it as a viable option. If you believe closer to $30 million is where this ends up, that should change your outlook for it as an anchor.

With "Judy"... it's ALL about theater count. If this gets around 300 screens, it should very much be a BP possibility. For now, I'll wait and see and my current estimate keeps it out.

This brings us to "Downton Abbey", which had a terrific opening but was still too pricey last weekend. I don't feel that way for its sophomore performance and see it as the best anchor option around.

It's a weekend where my quality performers are bunched tightly together, but I'm giving "The Lion King" a slight edge. Yet don't be surprised if Judy Garland changes that dynamic.

Here's how I have the selected features performing:

"Abominable" - $20.7 million
"Downton Abbey" - $17.4 million
"Ad Astra" - $10.3 million
"Hustlers" - $9.5 million
"It Chapter Two" - $8.3 million
"Rambo: Last Blood" - $7.8 million
"Good Boys/Angel Has Fallen" (Double Feature) - $2.8 million
"The Lion King" - $1.5 million
"Judy" - $1.2 million
"Overcomer" - $804,000
"Hobbs & Shaw" - $793,000
"Dora and the Lost City of Gold" - $718,000
"The Peanut Butter Falcon" - $545,000
"Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark" - $537,000
"Brittany Runs a Marathon" - $502,000

And that leaves me with a double "Downton" showing and "The Lion King" 6x. What say you?