Would you like to build a lineup?
Each Thursday I'll give a little breakdown on how to build your lineup with the information readily available to everyone, especially if you don't know where to start.
this can always change pending preview numbers and are by no means a guarantee to win
FML Legend (so you aren't completely lost)
BP - Best Performer; earns you an extra $2 million to your cinema, this is the "highest Box Office per FML Buck"
PC - Perfect Cineplex; earns you an extra $5 million to your cinema, this when you elect the perfect lineup "resulting in the highest possible total Box Office score plus any bonuses already earned."
WP - Worst Performer; this is the worst movie based on Box Office per FML Box spent
TC - Theatre Count; how many theatres the movie will be appearing in, this will up or down depending on how long the movie has been out for, special events etc
BB/Bar - Bonus Bar; this is the predicted value a movie needs to meet/exceed to be your BP contender.
Holdover - a movie that is in its second or more week on the slate.
Slate - the 15 movies you get to choose from each week :)
Anchor - The movie most likely to helm your cineplex; this can be anything from the movie that will make the most Box Office money over the weekend, or multiples of the same movie that helms your cineplex.
GOAT - 20th Century Flops. No more information required. :D
How about that Disney magic?!? Seems as though every aspect of Disney is magical, including their accounting department. I'll take it, as I was one of many who got the PC last week. We'll see how much more magical they will get this week with "The Lion King" opening and 3 other Disney movies still on the slate.
We also have a split weekend with "The Lion King". I'll be using the following split of 39.40%/32.70%/27.90% for the Fri/Sat/Sun split respectively.
We've gone from a low Bonus Bar to a high Bonus Bar. The Cineplex Builder is set at $133k this week.
Guyett is looking at a Bonus Bar of $140k. There's some potential in counter programming this week with "Crawl" and decent reviews will help it. "Yesterday" will be in a similar boat. It all comes down to "The Lion King" and if it plays out more like an animated movie or a live action movie.
Ahem….King BSWhite has advised against "Spider-Man: Far From Home" this week. With "The Lion King" releasing this week, our friendly neighbourhood Spider-Man doesn't have much of a chance getting into the PC or being BP this week.
Phil almost missed the mark last week with citing that "Men In Black" would be DOA, it very nearly was the BP. We're looking at "Aladdin", "Annabelle Comes Home", "Midsommar", Avengers: Endgame", and "Men In Black" all being DOA this week and the "Secret Life Of Pets 2" under the Getting Dicey tier. The big question we all have, is what can Disney do to shift money to some of these DOA movies to make them in the running. After last week's shenanigans, it's safe to assume that neither "Aladdin" nor "Avengers: Endgame" are really DOA yet.
Sulli has 240 Drive In's reporting this week. "Toy Story 4" has the lion's share of pairings with "The Lion King" this week, however, Disney has paired all their movies in some capacity with "The Lion King". We are all speculating the potential of larger than expected box office totals for all the Disney movies right now.
Real Fake Films is back with the Oracle this week. As you can tell, we're all scratching our heads over the miraculous $400k "Avengers: Endgame" got last weekend and the Oracle is just as baffled. Originally it was stated that the Drive In's wouldn't have any impact this weekend, but now the Oracle isn't sure and will update when more information becomes available. What the Oracle does state, that no one disagrees with, is that "The Lion King" will anchor your lineup this week. Which two combination of days will depend on the movies you're comparing it to, whether it's animated or live action and what time of year the movies came out that you're looking at.
BOP only gave estimates for 5 movies this week. There's a little thing called the San Diego Comic Con that they may be focusing more on. They have "Yesterday" as their top BP pick, followed by "The Lion King" Saturday, then "The Lion King" Friday. I would note that "The Lion King" Sunday isn't very far behind the first two.
BOR has done us a real solid by giving us his estimates for 12 movies. He has "The Lion King" as his top 3 BP picks, in the order of Saturday, Friday then Sunday. A little further back, he has "Yesterday" in fourth.
Mojo is also on the "The Lion King" train. They have Saturday taking the top spot with Friday next, followed by Sunday. In fourth they have "Crawl".
"The Lion King" comes in with a whopping 4725 theatre count. Notable cuts are "Men In Black" with a 65% cut, "Midsommar" with a 60% cut which seems to coincide with the DOA status in the Fandango Check thread. Disney cuts include "Avengers: Endgame" at 32%, "Aladdin" with 18% and "Toy Story 4" in with 11%, making room for the colossal "The Lion King" number.
This weekend is all about the king. "The Lion King" that is. It's heading for a very big opening weekend with the theatre count to back that up. As much as all the pros have "The Lion King" in their BP race, it's also good to look at counter programming movies (basically the opposite audience that "The Lion King" would appeal to) for potential BP options. There are at least two that tickle my fancy and depending how well "The Lion King"'s previews are, I think they'll give it a race for BP. I would also be remiss if I didn't include that your anchor choices this weekend will include some combination for "The Lion King" days.