Box Office Estimates July 19-21

Todd Thatcher

Can any movie capture the art of keeping "The Lion King" from anchoring our FML lineup this weekend? Todd from www.toddmthatcher.com here bringing you my take on the weekend ahead as Disney's latest live-action rendering of an animated classic gets the daily treatment and Jesse Eisenberg's critically appreciated karate pic "The Art of Self-Defense" expands.


While "Self-Defense" had a decent limited release over the weekend, I don't look for it do much in its expanded rollout. I'll kick it right off my lineup possibilities. When it comes to "The Lion King", that's a different story. While I wouldn't say I have no worries that it meets expectations, my $192.7 million overall estimate (which would be the 8th biggest opening ever) puts it in line for anchoring contention and I currently dig the Saturday pricing.


"Aladdin" could benefit from drive-in pairings with "King" and the "Yesterday" pricing is catching my eye.


Here's how I have the selected features performing:


"The Lion King" (Friday) - $71.9 million
"The Lion King" (Saturday) - $60.2 million
"The Lion King" (Sunday) - $50.6 million
"Spider-Man: Far From Home" - $22.4 million
"Toy Story 4" - $14.1 million
"Aladdin" - $5.5 million
"Crawl" - $5.4 million
"Yesterday" - $4.5 million
"Stuber" - $4 million
"Annabelle Comes Home" - $3.1 million
"The Art of Self-Defense" - $2.1 million
"Midsommar" - $1.9 million
"The Secret Life of Pets 2" - $1.9 million
"Avengers Endgame" - $1.5 million
"Men in Black: International" - $1.2 million


And that leaves me with a double dose of Saturday's "King" along with "Aladdin" and a 5x "Yesterday" play. What say you?