Box Office Estimates for June 12-14

Todd Thatcher

Disney should be able to dominate the box office this weekend, just as they have all year. That's despite competition from two newcomers: alligator horror flick "Crawl" and Kumail Nanjiani/Dave Bautista action comedy "Stuber".

Todd from here bringing you my take on the weekend ahead. I must admit that I'm a bit surprised the FML pricing gurus have put "Stuber" ahead of "Crawl". I feel the latter has stronger breakout potential, but my projection leaves it just short of being anchor material.

It's worth pointing out that "Spider-Man: Homecoming" dropped 62% two summers ago in its sophomore frame. Yet I don't see "Far From Home" experiencing that level of decline (I'll say 53%). That puts it in position to anchor a very Disney friendly lineup.

Here's how I have the selected features performing:

"Spider-Man: Far From Home" - $43.6 million
"Toy Story 4" - $18.5 million
"Crawl" - $15.2 million
"Stuber" - $12.8 million
"Yesterday" - $6.3 million
"Aladdin" - $5.2 million
"Annabelle Comes Home" - $4.3 million
"Midsommar" - $3.1 million
"The Secret Life of Pets 2" - $2.7 million
"Men in Black: International" - $1.9 million
"Rocketman" - $1.7 million
"Avengers: Endgame" - $1.6 million
"John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum" - $1.4 million
"Child's Play" - $564,000
"Godzilla: King of the Monsters" - $380,000

And that leaves me with Spidey and "Toy Story" and a 6x play of "Endgame". What say you?