Would you like to build a lineup?
Each week I'll give a little breakdown on how to build your lineup with the information readily available to everyone, especially if you don't know where to start.
this can always change pending preview numbers and are by no means a guarantee to win
FML Legend (so you aren't completely lost)
BP - Best Performer; earns you an extra $2 million to your cinema, this is the "highest Box Office per FML Buck"
PC - Perfect Cineplex; earns you an extra $5 million to your cinema, this when you elect the perfect lineup "resulting in the highest possible total Box Office score plus any bonuses already earned."
WP - Worst Performer; this is the worst movie based on Box Office per FML Box spent
TC - Theatre Count; how many theatres the movie will be appearing in, this will up or down depending on how long the movie has been out for, special events etc
BB/Bar - Bonus Bar; this is the predicted value a movie needs to meet/exceed to be your BP contender.
Holdover - a movie that is in its second or more week on the slate.
Slate - the 15 movies you get to choose from each week :)
Anchor - The movie most likely to helm your cineplex; this can be anything from the movie that will make the most Box Office money over the weekend, or multiples of the same movie that helms your cineplex.
GOAT - 20th Century Flops. No more information required. :D
RIP AK Valley Tracker. We hardly knew ye. Most of us who were following the sales for the week noticed that "Yesterday" was doing quite well. Even with a HUGE expansion, "Avengers: Endgame" couldn't catch it. Vincent Pricing did well with "Avengers: Endgame" but was unable to predict how well "Yesterday" would do.
This week are weeks I hate. We have a bunch of early releases (read: not Friday) plus a holiday in the middle and to top it all off, a split title as well.. It will be hard to gauge the weekend with so many weekday variables. "Spider-Man: Far From Home" has the Fri/Sat/Sun split days and I'll be using 36.94%/35.22%/27.83% respectively for estimate calculations.
The Cineplex Builder is set at $123k value. This is probably one of the higher starting points I've seen from the builder, but one I feel will actually be very close once the dust settles.
Guyett has is coming in a bit lower than the Builder, having the Bonus Bar set at $115k. Guyett has also given a couple of comparison weekends for the box office to help you sort this messy week out.
BSWhite is quite happy to get another tick in the win column last week. He's on vacation this week so he kept it short and simple, don't play "Spider-Man: Far From Home" Friday. He doesn't think it will be BP or figure into the PC.
Sulli is reporting 207 Drive Ins. "Men in Black: International" win the pairing match up, representing 132 Drive Ins along side of "Spider-Man: Far From Home". The "Toy Story 4" and "Aladdin" combo still has a lot of pairings as well with 86.
Waco Kid and Nux are back in Noteworthy Threads, they have a great weekly thread that is usually up later on Thursday evenings. With today being a holiday for most, their thread is up early. There are some great comparisons made to help guide you on what kind of drops/holds your estimates may have for this week.
The Oracle is also back, so be sure to check that out as well. I'm inclined to agree with their take on "Avengers: Endgame" this week.
We have a couple missing threads this week, but it's forgivable on a holiday :)
Many pro estimates were out early this week, some are a little more in depth than others because of this.
BOP has "Annabelle Comes Home" as their top BP candidate. It's not often I completely disagree with any of the pros, but this one just seems off. They have "Toy Story 4" in second for value and "Yesterday" in third, which I agree with a lot more.
BOR is best at holdovers. This is a fun statement some of us like to throw around from time to time. He is very good at projecting estimates for movies not in their opening weekend. He has "Avengers: Endgame", "Aladdin" and "Toy Story 4" his top value, in that order. This I 100% agree on for the top 3, even though I may or may not have that order.
Mojo also agrees with BOR. They have "Avengers: Endgame" as their top BP candidate, followed by "Aladdin" then "Secret Life of Pets 2"
The theatre counts haven't been fully populated yet, but as Guyett suggested, "Child's Play" will probably see massive cuts and would most likely be unplayable this week. Another thing to note would be that "Avengers: Endgame" only lost 40 theatres according to some other sources which is why many have it as one of their top BP candidates this week.
I'm pretty set on what I will be anchoring with this weekend. Trying to find lines that play nice with my anchor is a bit of a different story. I have one line that looks amazing for a couple different BP options, and then a very messy one for my other option.