Weekend Box Office Report

Phil Crone

To Not Quite Infinity and Beyond!


As expected, "Toy Story 4" dominates the box office this weekend, taking home $118,000,000. That makes it just the fourth Pixar movie to open over $100M and the highest opening weekend for any movie in the "Toy Story" franchise. However, projections were ranging from $150M up to $200M; even Disney's internal projection was reported at $130M, and studios tend to be conservative with their expectations. Most of these projections were based on the initial surge of presale tickets when they went on sale a month ago, where day one sales were pacing ahead of last year's "Incredibles 2," which opened with a staggering $185M. So, what happened? Did everyone just buy early and not often? Just my own observation here, but it feels like this year that ticket sellers are doing a better job publicizing when tickets go on sale. Just this morning, my inbox was inundated with various retailers selling tickets to "The Lion King," so we'll see if the trend continues. For now, be wary of the changing winds in the box office - they can potential spell disaster.


No surprise that for FML purposes, "Toy Story 4" had no place in the Best Performer discussion, but it did end up anchoring your Perfect Cineplex if essentially by default given that it's three individual days made up over 60% of all the box office grosses on the slate this weekend. This also torpedoed your Most Played Cineplex for the FML League, the "all-in" strategy of "Toy Story" Saturday x1/"Toy Story" Sunday x1/"Avengers Endgame" x5/Blank x1, which was played by 528 players.


Yeah, I Think He's Back


It definitely was not an easy week for the FML Pricing Team, as they had to deal with the combination of a nine-figure opener and the box office letdown off Father's Day weekend. Pricing ended up making too large of a bet on a Father's Day drop, resulting in your top 3 movies in terms of $/Bux value all being movies that saw significant Father's Day bumps last weekend: "Godzilla: King of the Monsters," "Shaft," and "John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum." The best hold of the three by far went to our BP winner, "John Wick 3," which gives it its first BP win in a solid FML run that has included two other PC appearances. "John Wick 3" fell a mere 36% to gross $4,085,828, which was good for $123,813/Bux and an easy BP win.


The PC did not prove to be quite the same runaway as the BP. The majority of "Wick" players bet on another strong Sunday for splits, which has been the FML trend as of late, leading to 515 players screening "Toy Story 4" Sunday x2/"John Wick 3" x6. However, despite a strong Sunday performance relative to how the rest of the weekend panned out, the PC proved to be the one that led every step of the way of "Toy Story 4" Friday x1/"Child's Play" x1/"Aladdin" x1/"John Wick 3" x5, which grossed $110,174,705 after including $15M in bonuses. Well done to the 68 players who screened the PC this weekend!


Home Before the Holiday


Given that we just had a tentpole release and another one coming in a mere eight days, we're getting a bit of a lull this weekend in the box office. Opening Wednesday is "Annabelle Comes Home," which is somehow the seventh movie in the Conjuring Universe. I'd make a joke about it already being the second this year, but we're about to get a third Marvel movie for 2019 and no one seems tired of that so… You do you, Conjuring Universe. That leaves only one wide release for Friday with "Yesterday," a movie that attempts to pretend the Beatles would be just as big today if nostalgia wasn't fueling all the love for the Beatles that still exists. (DON'T @ ME ON THIS.) Set your lineups by Friday Noon Eastern/9 AM Pacific and we'll see you here next week!