Box Office Estimates for June 7-9

Todd Thatcher

It is officially the summer season as hope springs eternal (at least for a weekend) for FML domination. To anchor our lineups, we have the choice of two sequels that look to underperform compared to their predecessors: "The Secret Life of Pets 2" and "Dark Phoenix" (the alleged final film in the current X-Men franchise).


Todd from www.toddmthatcher.com here bringing you my take on Week 1 in the blockbuster zone. Simply put, I'm on the higher end of expectations with "Pets". While the 2016 original made $104 million out of the gate, part 2 is not anticipated to reach those lofty heights. I still think low 70s is certainly doable and that makes it an easy anchor play for me.


That's especially true because "Dark Phoenix" looks bound for the smallest X opening of all time in the mid 40s. That would fall under the $53 million of "The Wolverine" in 2013. We also have the Hindi language drama "Bharat", slated to open on roughly 350 screens. It premieres on Wednesday so that should eat into the weekend gross. I don't see it as a factor currently.


So with my robust "Pets" call (especially considering the pricing), it's all about combining that with "Aladdin" and low end filler and wishing that this season gets off to a solid start.


Here's how I have the selected features performing:


"The Secret Life of Pets 2" - $70.2 million
"Dark Phoenix" - $45.3 million
"Aladdin" - $26.5 million
"Godzilla: King of the Monsters" - $20.9 million
"Rocketman" - $14.9 million
"Ma" - $8.4 million
"John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum" - $6 million
"Avengers: Endgame" - $4.8 million
"Pokémon Detective Pikachu" - $4 million
"Bharat" - $1.6 million
"Booksmart" - $1.6 million
"Brightburn" - $840,000
"The Hustle" - $626,000
"A Dog's Journey" - $512,000
"The Intruder" - $358,000


And that gives me the one two punch of "Pets" and "Aladdin" along with "Booksmart", a 2x "Hustle", and "A Dog's Journey" 3x. What say you?