Box Office Estimates for May 24-27

Todd Thatcher

Hey all - Todd from bringing you my take on the Memorial Day weekend ahead of us. The FML pricing gods have given us a Friday/Saturday and Sunday/Monday split for "Aladdin". We also have superhero horror tale "Brightburn" and critically hailed high school comedy "Booksmart" to consider.

And for this holiday frame... I don't like the pricing for any of the newbies. While Disney may wish for an opening approaching $100 million for Will Smith's blue genie, I'm going on the lower end of expectations. My $74.8 million forecast gets it away from my lineup no matter which days you factor in. And while both "Brightburn" or "Booksmart" or both could over perform, I'm not feeling them enough to make them playable.

As for "John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum", I foresee it having the biggest percentage dip after its fantastic debut. And that leaves me with Tony Stark and company. There's plenty of data when considering this holiday weekend and MCU titles. It points to a drop in the mid 20s for "Endgame". And that's my anchor.

Here's how I have the selected features performing:

"Aladdin" (Friday/Saturday) - $41.8 million
"Aladdin" (Sunday/Monday) - $33 million
"John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum" - $27 million
"Avengers: Endgame" - $22.5 million
"Pokemon Detective Pikachu" - $16.4 million
"Brightburn" - $10.7 million
"Booksmart" - $8.6 million
"A Dog's Journey" - $5.5 million
"The Hustle" - $4.2 million
"The Intruder" - $3 million
"Long Shot" - $2.3 million
"The Sun Is Also a Star" - $1.5 million
"Poms" - $1.3 million
"UglyDolls" - $1.2 million
"Breakthrough" - $729,000

And that leaves me with with a 4x "Avengers" showing along with "A Dog's Journey" and "UglyDolls" 3x. What say you?