Box Office Estimates for May 17-19

Todd Thatcher

To Wick or not to Wick? That is the question for me this weekend as Keanu Reeves unleashes his fury once again in "John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum". We have also have the canine sequel "A Dog's Journey" and YA romance "The Sun Is Also a Star" for our FML consideration as the spring season winds down.

Todd from here bringing you my take on it all. Let's start with the newbies not featuring Neo. I have "Journey" not following the high teens road that predecessor "A Dog's Purpose" accomplished. As for "Sun", I have a dim view of its prospects.

Back to Mr. Reeves! My official estimate puts "Parabellum" in the high 30s range. However, if anything, this estimate is likely to rise and not fall. So for a little something different, I'll give you my set estimate and then raise it up a cool $10 million and give you both lineup scenarios.

Here's how I have the selected features performing:

"John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum" - $37.8 million
"Avengers: Endgame" - $28.5 million
"Pokemon Detective Pikachu" - $25.4 million
"A Dog's Journey" - $12.8 million
"The Hustle" - $7.1 million
"The Sun Is Also a Star" - $5.5 million
"The Intruder" - $4.5 million
"Long Shot" - $4.1 million
"Poms" - $2.7 million
"UglyDolls" - $1.9 million
"Breakthrough" - $1.5 million
"Tolkien" - $1.1 million
"Captain Marvel" - $976,000
"The Curse of La Llorona" - $806,000
"Shazam!" - $502,000

With those estimates, that leaves me with "Endgame" and "Pikachu" along with a 6x "Long Shot" play.

Yet if I take "Wick" to $47.8 million, Keanu anchors the lineup along with "The Hustle" 3x and "Long Shot" 4x. What say you?