Box Office Estimates for May 10-12

Todd Thatcher

What an interesting weekend as seven new options are available for our FML consideration. That's because "Pokemon Detective Pikachu" is getting the daily split treatment while four other newcomers debut. We have two comedies marketed toward a female audience: Anne Hathaway and Rebel Wilson in the "Dirty Rotten Scoundrels" remake "The Hustle" and Diane Keaton cheerleading tale "Poms". There's also Nicholas Hoult in the biopic "Tolkien" and Bollywood sequel "Student of the Year 2".

Todd from here bringing you my take on all the action. When it comes to anchor plays, the question is simple. Where do you have "Pikachu" compared to "Endgame" in its third weekend? This is not easy. The range of predictions for the former is all over the map. I'm currently putting it in the mid 70s with a confidence level of nada. If I take Tony Stark and company down 50%, that means my $74.8 million "Pikachu" forecast gives it the #1 spot... barely. One other note: a solid performance by my expected #1 pick could help "Shazam!" with drive-in business.

After the subpar opening for "Long Shot", I'm skeptical that "Hustle" or "Poms" over perform and don't want them near my lineup. I'm also not thinking "Tolkien" impresses, but it does manage to make an appearance in my lineup. As for "Student", it could be dangerous filler either way. With 175 screens, however, I'm not feeling it.

Figuring Friday could be in the cards for the die hard "Pokémon" fans, let's roll with that for now and here's how I have the selected features performing:

"Avengers: Endgame" - $73.5 million
"Pokemon Detective Pikachu" (Friday) - $28.7 million
"Pokemon Detective Pikachu" (Saturday) - $26 million
"Pokemon Detective Pikachu" (Sunday) - $20.1 million
"The Hustle" - $13.4 million
"Poms" - $8.7 million
"Long Shot" - $5.5 million
"The Intruder" - $5.3 million
"UglyDolls" - $4.5 million
"Tolkien" - $3.1 million
"Captain Marvel" - $2.6 million
"Breakthrough" - $2.4 million
"Shazam!" - $1.5 million
"The Curse of La Llorona" - $1.4 million
"Student of the Year 2" - $578,000

And that leaves me with the Friday "Pikachu" 3x along with a grab bag of "Intruder", "Tolkien", "Shazam!", and "La Llorona" 2x. What say you?