Box Office Estimates for May 3-5

Todd Thatcher

As we all pick our collective jaws up off the floor after the astounding opening of "Avengers: Endgame", we have four new titles for our FML consideration. There's the animated plush toy adaptation "UglyDolls", Seth Rogen/Charlize Theron comedy "Long Shot", homeownership thriller "The Intruder", and Mexican superhero tale "El Chicano".


Todd from www.toddmthatcher.com here bringing you my take on the weekend ahead. "Endgame" stays daily priced as it looks to achieve the #1 highest second weekend after shattering numerous records in its debut. I believe it'll do so by dropping about 57%, which still vaults it ahead of the $149 million earned by "Star Wars: The Force Awakens" in its sophomore frame. I'm also giving it a split of 27/40/33 from Friday-Sunday (similar to "Infinity War").


The 600 theater count for "Chicano" leaves me skeptical, but an over performance isn't out of the question. The real battle this weekend is for #2 and that's where I've split from the FML pricing gods. I'm giving "The Intruder" the edge. If the similarly themed "Breaking In" made $17.6 million in May of last year, I'll give this just over $15 million. And that's higher than I have the direct competitors.


Here's how I have the selected features performing:


"Avengers: Endgame" (Saturday) - $62.5 million
"Avengers: Endgame" (Sunday) - $50.7 million
"Avengers: Endgame" (Friday) - $40.4 million
"The Intruder" - $15.2 million
"UglyDolls" - $13.8 million
"Long Shot" - $13.1 million
"Captain Marvel" - $5.9 million
"Breakthrough" - $4.3 million
"The Curse of La Llorona" - $3.8 million
"Shazam!" - $2.9 million
"Little" - $2 million
"Dumbo" - $1.8 million
"El Chicano" - $1.6 million
"Penguins" - $638,000
"Pet Sematary" - $602,000


And that leaves me with the Sunday edition of "Endgame" along with "Intruder" 5x and "Captain Marvel" and "Breakthrough". What say you?