Box Office Estimates for April 19-21

Todd Thatcher

It's Easter weekend at the box office and while some heavy hitters have opened over this holiday in recent times ("The Fate of the Furious", "Ready Player One"), that's not really happening this time around. The reason is pretty simple as something called "Avengers: Endgame" is set to debut next weekend. We have a quintet of newcomers for our FML consideration: Conjuring Cinematic Universe effort "The Curse of La Llorona", faith-based drama "Breakthrough", DisneyNature doc "Penguins", Hindi historical pic "Kalank", and Aretha Franklin doc "Amazing Grace".


Todd from www.toddmthatcher.com here bringing you my take on the holiday frame ahead. "La Llorona" is part of a billion dollar franchise, but I question whether a significant portion of moviegoers even know it. It should have the lowest debut of the series, but still manage to top the charts.


I'm pretty high on "Breakthrough" as its intended audience could nab it a mid teens traditional weekend haul. That's not as much as "Heaven Is for Real" from five Easter's ago, but it's enough to be my anchor. The film gets a Wednesday release so midweek grosses are worth keeping an eye on.


The same holds true for "Penguins". Recent DisneyNature efforts have earned between $4-$5 million for their starts. This could fall a tad under that since it's getting a two-day jump.


"Kalank" is scheduled for around 300 screens and I currently don't see it as a factor. A theater count could change my feelings on "Amazing Grace". Without it, I'm not giving it enough R-E-S-PE-C-T for a play.


Here's how I have the selected features performing:


"The Curse of La Llorona" - $22.1 million
"Breakthrough" - $16.9 million
"Shazam!" - $14 million
"Little" - $7.8 million
"Captain Marvel" - $6 million
"Dumbo" - $5.4 million
"Pet Sematary" - $4.6 million
"Hellboy" - $4.1 million
"Penguins" - $3.5 million
"Us" - $3.3 million
"Missing Link" - $3.2 million
"After" - $2.8 million
"Kalank" - $1.6 million
"Amazing Grace" - $973,000
"Unplanned" - $945,000


And that has me playing "Breakthrough" 4x along with double showings of "After" and "Unplanned". What say you?