Would you like to build a lineup?
Each Thursday I'll give a little breakdown on how to build your lineup with the information readily available to everyone, especially if you don't know where to start.
this can always change pending preview numbers and are by no means a guarantee to win
So last week you were either with 'US' or against 'US' (but only a Sith deals in absolutes. Hahaha). Hopefully you anchored correctly and it all came down to filler. I was very pleased with myself having correctly estimated 'Isn't It Romantic' over 'Green Book' and securing the PC.
This week has given me a headache. Literally, I've had a headache all week. ;) The only thing I'm sure of, is 'Dumbo' seems to be heading lower than originally anticipated and I don't see a line to having it in your Cineplex this week. (More below on that)
We start our week with a $91k Bonus Bar. At the beginning of the week, I completely agreed....now I think it'll be well over $100k
Guyett set the Bonus Bar a little bit higher at $95k. Still a little on the low side I think. Read Guyett's commentary in this thread. It will help you determine what movies you can cross off your BP list and which may be good risk/reward plays if you're looking to take a swing this weekend.
This seemed like a really bold BSA when BSWhite posted it. Now, it seems inevitable that 'Dumbo' will be one of the worst performers of the week. Less than stellar presales and mediocre reviews are going against it.
Even if you don't quite understand this thread, Phil's commentary will help you out. The big takeaways this week, we're all having a hard time trying to find comparisons for 'Beach Bum' while 'Alita: Battle Angel' and 'Apollo' have run their course.
Keep an eye out for Waco Kid and Nux's Comp thread. They come up with some pretty good comps to movies that will help you out.
Presales this week haven't helped me at all. Unlike last week, where it was obvious that US was going to exceed expectations, this week isn't as clear cut, at least for the BP front runners. If anything, what it does say, is that Dumbo is flying low.
They're sticking with their long range forecast with 'Dumbo.' I'm very doubtful that it'll get there. They're predicting that 'Beach Bum' will be BP and that 'No Manches Frida 2' will be second in value, followed by 'Wonder Park.'
BOR either knows something we don't or has over estimated 'Gloria Bell.' There are whispers of a theatre count increase but I haven't seen anything yet. EDIT: TC came in at 1127, ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. 'Five Feet Apart' is next, followed by 'Captain Marvel.' He has a more reasonable estimate for 'Dumbo' as well. BOR is also the only pro that may have taken group sales into consideration with Unplanned.
Mojo is definitely smoking something ;) 'Beach Bum' is so far ahead that nothing else matters if you go by their estimates.
'Beach Bum' wound up in more theatres than originally thought and 'Gloria Bell' got the expansion some of us thought it would get.
This week isn't over yet. I've got 3 BP candidates and a case could be made for all of them. Preview numbers, presales and whisper whispers will be my deciding factors this week.