Box Office Estimates for March 29 - 31

Todd Thatcher

Hey all - Todd from www.toddmthatcher.com here bringing you my take on the weekend ahead as Disney's live-action take on "Dumbo", true life action thriller "Hotel Mumbai", Pure Flix pro-life drama "Unplanned", and Matthew McConaughey stoner comedy "The Beach Bum" all fly into our FML consideration.


While I don't have Tim Burton's elephant adventure coming anywhere near the opening grosses of "Beauty and the Beast" or the filmmaker's own "Alice in Wonderland", my mid 60s projection (similar to "Cinderella") puts it in line for anchor play.


That's partly due to my feeling that "Us", which experienced an incredible debut, will have a sophomore dip in the mid 40s range - higher than Jordan Peele's cultural milestone "Get Out".


For the other newcomers, I get why "Unplanned" is priced as it is. However, recent releases from Pure Flix have under performed expectations. I have it generating under $2 million in ninth place and being the WP. My number is even lower for "The Beach Bum", which I have as a non-factor.


This brings us to "Hotel Mumbai", which had a per theater average of just over $20,000 on four screens. Obviously that number will fall precipitously as it expands to approximately 800. Yet my seventh position placement for it means I'm high on "Mumbai".


Here's how I have the selected features performing:


"Dumbo" - $65.6 million
"Us" - $38.4 million
"Captain Marvel" - $20.1 million
"Five Feet Apart" - $5.9 million
"Wonder Park" - $4.9 million
"How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World" - $3.7 million
"Hotel Mumbai" - $3.6 million
"Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral" - $2.2 million
"Unplanned" - $1.8 million
"The Beach Bum" - $1.6 million
"Gloria Bell" - $1.2 million
"No Manches Frida 2" - $902,000
"The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part" - $598,000
"Alita: Battle Angel" - $564,000
"Apollo 11" - $531,000


And that leaves me with "Dumbo", "Five Feet Apart", and a 6x showing of "Mumbai". What say you?