Weekend Box Office Report
That Was Us
There are a lot of weeks where FML as a whole just whiffs when it comes to a new release, but this is not one of those weeks. Projections for "Us" heading into the weekend sat around $45M, but neither pricing nor the FML player base was buying it. Pricing gave "Us" a price where it was going to have to prove the hype, needing it to make north of $60M to factor into the Best Performer conversation. Fine, how about $70M then? No surprises as "Us" was your easy box office winner with $71,117,625, but it was a pretty big surprise to most that "Us" managed to clobber expectations. Not much of FML seemed shocked though, with over half of the player base screening "Us," and they were rewarded a little extra as well, with "Us" also taking your BP bonus at $103,219/Bux.
It's surprising to see projections as a whole miss so badly on "Us" given its franchise positioning of sorts. While not a sequel to "Get Out," marketing was not shy about attaching "Us" to director Jordan Peele's wildly successful debut. When it comes to projecting opening weekends for any "sequel" if you will, a good metric to look at is the ratio of the lifetime gross to the opening weekend. Generally, the higher that ratio is, the more likely you're going to get a bigger opening weekend for the successor. It's a relationship that makes sense logically - as more of the audience found the original later, it stands to reason that more people would be ready opening weekend for the second one. Since FML's inception, 127 movies have opened on a Friday and debuted over $25M (including "Us"). The average Lifetime/Opening ratio sits around 3.1 for these 127 movies. "Get Out's" ratio? A stellar 5.3. Only one movie in the history of FML actually has a higher ratio, and not surprisingly, it's "Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse" at 5.4. In this context, the opening weekend for "Us," while still higher than many expected, isn't exactly a stunner.
(BUT WAIT, WHERE'S "JUMANJI?!" That opened on a Wednesday.)
I Got Five On It
When your BP costs over half your FML bux, you only have 1/8th of your Cineplex figured out. Options were aplenty underneath "Us," with the key just being to find the best value of everything else on the slate. That movie proved to be "Five Feet Apart," which acted a lot more like last year's "Love, Simon" than other teen dramas, posting a solid hold of $8,547,539, only a 35 percent dip from last weekend. 188 players were 0 feet away from the PC of "Us" x1/"Five Feet Apart" x3/"Alita: Battle Angel" x1/"Isn't it Romantic" x3, which grossed $106,714,140 after including $7M in bonuses.
Playing for Peanuts
Disney decided that one week away from the top of the box office was enough, and now they are poised to release their re-imagining of "Dumbo" in the market. This marks the first of FOUR movies in 2019 for the "Live Action Re-imagining Cinematic Universe" of Disney (or "LARCU"). Is the "LARCU" actually a thing? Are all these movies in the same universe? You can't prove they aren't, can you?! Also, if you don't like that Disney just remakes their old stuff, well… stop buying tickets for it, I guess. We also have a couple smaller releases entering the market in "The Beach Bum" and "Unplanned," two movies that surely have a lot of audience overlap that you would have thought would be sorted out. Finally, "Hotel Mumbai" will be making its FML debut after two weeks in limited release. Set your lineups by Friday Noon Eastern/9 AM Pacific and we'll see you here next week!