Box Office Estimates for March 15-17

Todd Thatcher

There might be a quartet of newcomers streaming into our FML consciousness this weekend, but it could once again be all about which "Captain" day or days pilot your lineup. Todd from www.toddmthatcher.com here bringing you my take on the frame ahead. We have Nickelodeon's animated "Wonder Park", youth romantic drama "Five Feet Apart", alien invasion thriller "Captive State", and Pantelion sequel "No Manches Frida 2" debuting.


None of them should come anywhere close to supplanting "Captain Marvel" from a second weekend atop the charts after its $150 million plus opening. The FML pricing gurus have wisely slated it again for daily pricing. Unlike its opening weekend, the largest grossing day should easily be Saturday with no Thursday preview numbers to consider.


I have "Apart" and "Park" both barely reaching double digits in a battle for the runner-up position. With a theater count of just 450, I have "Frida" nabbing the six spot and managing to make more than the barely publicized "Captive", despite it premiering on about 5x as many screens.


Here's how I have the selected features performing:


"Captain Marvel" (Saturday) - $31.3 million
"Captain Marvel" (Friday) - $22.3 million
"Captain Marvel" (Sunday) - $17.8 million
"Five Feet Apart" - $10.7 million
"Wonder Park" - $10.3 million
"How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World" - $9.4 million
"Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral" - $5.6 million
"No Manches Frida 2" - $3.4 million
"Captive State" - $2.8 million
"The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part" - $2.7 million
"Alita: Battle Angel" - $2.1 million
"Green Book" - $1.4 million
"Isn't It Romantic" - $1.4 million
"Fighting with My Family" - $1.2 million
"Greta" - $1.1 million


And that leaves me riding with the Saturday "Captain" 2x along with "Wonder Park", "Alita" 2x, "Romantic", and "Fighting" 2x. What say you?