Box Office Estimates for February 22-24

Todd Thatcher

Dragons, wrestlers, and Tim Tebow enter into our FML consideration as "How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World", "Fighting with My Family", and "Run the Race" debut. Todd from www.toddmthatcher.com here bringing you my take as "Dragon" looks to dominate a frame in which Oscar ends the weekend.


I have the Dreamworks Animation franchise finale achieving a mid 40s debut, in range with its predecessors. That's a pretty solid number, but not quite enough to be my anchor.


"Fighting with My Family" has sleeper potential, but I'm currently projecting a fourth place finish in the low double digits. There is a chance my forecast could inch up and it could find itself entering my FML ring.


As for "Run the Race", I'll confess I wasn't aware of its existence. It's a faith-based sports pic executive produced by Tim Tebow. A screen count will be important to see Thursday, but for now it's a non-factor in my screen.


The post President's Day weekend often sees large declines for holdovers and I feel this could especially apply to "Alita: Battle Angel" and "Isn't It Romantic".


This brings us to "The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part". It has certainly underwhelmed and many of us got burned by it two weeks ago. However, I like it this weekend. The first Lego saga also opened in the first weekend of February five years ago. In its third frame, it dropped 37%. The same release pattern greeted 2017's "The Lego Batman Movie". It fell 41% on weekend #3. If I take "The Second Part" down a heftier 46%, I'm still digging its pricing at the moment.


Here's how I have the selected features performing:


"How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World" - $44.7 million
"Alita: Battle Angel" - $12.9 million
"The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part" - $11.2 million
"Fighting with My Family" - $10.8 million
"Isn't It Romantic" - $6.1 million
"What Men Want" - $5 million
"Happy Death Day 2U" - $4 million
"The Upside" - $2.9 million
"Cold Pursuit" - $2.7 million
"Run the Race" - $2.2 million
"Green Book" - $2.2 million
"Glass" - $1.8 million
"The Prodigy" - $1.4 million
"Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse" - $1.2 million
"Aquaman" - $966,000


And that leaves me building my lineup with "Lego" 6x along with "Cold Pursuit" and "Spider-Man". What say you?