Box Office Estimates for February 15-18

Todd Thatcher

It's President's Day and Valentine's Day and a quartet of newcomers entering the FML fold this weekend. And it's Todd from here bringing you my take on it all as Blumhouse horror sequel "Happy Death Day 2U", James Cameron penned sci-fi graphic novel adaptation "Alita: Battle Angel", rom com satire "Isn't It Romantic", and Peter Jackson's World War I doc "They Shall Grow Old" roll in.

We're coming off a weekend where newbies all underwhelmed, particularly "The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part". It came in about $20 million under forecasts and ruined many a lineup. I still have it maintaining the #1 spot - thanks to the newbies opening on Wednesday ("Death Day" and "Romantic") and Thursday ("Alita").

To me, "2U" is the wild card as I believe it has the best chance to exceed expectations. However, the midweek premiere could mean it's front loaded. Yet it's still my anchor.

This four-day frame often sees smallish dips or even increases for holdovers (especially Oscar contenders). There's a lot to ponder with the double holiday buffet before us and I'm left with a lot of new and something old as "Bohemian Rhapsody" continues its epic run on FML.

Here's how I have the selected features performing from (take note) Friday to Monday:

"The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part" - $27.8 million
"Happy Death Day 2U" - $22 million
"Alita: Battle Angel" - $19.7 million
"Isn't It Romantic" - $14.3 million
"What Men Want" - $13 million
"The Upside" - $8 million
"Cold Pursuit" - $7.3 million
"Glass" - $4.4 million
"Green Book" - $3.9 million
"Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse" - $3.2 million
"The Prodigy" - $3.1 million
"Aquaman" - $2.8 million
"They Shall Not Grow Old" - $1.9 million
"Bohemian Rhapsody" - $1.3 million
"Miss Bala" - $1.2 million

And that has me playing "2U" 2x along with "Alita", "They Shall Not Grow Old", and Mr. Mercury and his royal band mates 4x. What say you?