Box Office Estimates for February 1-3

Todd Thatcher

Hey all, Todd from www.toddmthatcher.com here bringing you my take on what should be a very quiet weekend at the box office. The question of who will be #1 will be more about the New England Patriots or L.A. Rams and not "Glass" or "The Upside".


That said, I have it as a close battle between the two with the "Glass" edging "Upside" by just $700,000. If you believe the only newcomer - Gina Rodriguez action thriller "Miss Bala" - can over perform, it's priced to play. I've steadily lowered my projection on it, however. I have it in third by quite a bit.


With "Bala" out of my running, it's all about the declines as we await high-profile February releases beginning the week after. A case could be made for some Oscar nominated holdovers, including "Green Book". Yet I currently think "Bohemian Rhapsody" could be the pricing champion.


Here's how I have the selected features performing:


"Glass" - $9.8 million
"The Upside" - $9.1 million
"Miss Bala" - $5.8 million
"Aquaman" - $5 million
"Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse" - $4.6 million
"Green Book" - $4.6 million
"The Kid Who Would Be King" - $4.2 million
"A Dog's Way Home" - $3.5 million
"Escape Room" - $2.7 million
"The Favourite" - $2.2 million
"Serenity" - $2.1 million
"Mary Poppins Returns" - $2 million
"Bohemian Rhapsody" - $1.9 million
"Bumblebee" - $1.8 million
"Vice" - $1.3 million


And that leaves me playing "Glass" 3x along with "The Upside" and "Rhapsody" 4x. What say you?