Box Office Estimates for January 18 - 21

Todd Thatcher

Hey all! Todd from www.toddmthatcher.com here bringing you my take on the weekend ahead as we all ponder the "Glass" ceiling and it's Friday-Saturday and Sunday-Monday split. The M. Night Shyamalan mashup of his past hits looks to dominate the four-day MLK frame. How much it does so by will be a determining factor into its playability.


When I made my $72.1 million estimate for "Glass" over a week ago, I did so without the knowledge of its subpar reviews. Yet my projection hasn't changed as I have a sneaking feeling this could be critic proof. Think "Venom". I do believe the starting grosses could have a rather front-loaded nature, causing me to lean Fri-Sat.


The other newbie is the anime martial arts pic "Dragon Ball Super: Broly". It opens Wednesday and presales are solid. I do wonder if the early release could hinder its viability for a weekend play. There's the chance that the Wednesday and Thursday numbers could change my thinking, but right now I'm skeptical.


Newcomers certainly aren't the only item to consider as the holiday weekend often sees small declines or even increases for returnees. This could especially hold true for Oscar contenders as that season is in full swing. It's worth keeping an eye on theater counts Thursday as expansions could develop.


Here's how I currently have the selected features performing:


"Glass" (Friday-Saturday) - $46.4 million
"Glass" (Sunday-Monday) - $25.7 million
"The Upside" - $15.4 million
"Aquaman" - $13.8 million
"A Dog's Way Home" - $9.1 million
"Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse" - $8.3 million
"Dragon Ball Super: Broly" - $5.6 million
"Mary Poppins Returns" - $5.2 million
"Bumblebee" - $4.8 million
"Escape Room" - $4.7 million
"On the Basis of Sex" - $4.2 million
"The Mule" - $4.1 million
"Bohemian Rhapsody" - $4.1 million
"If Beale Street Could Talk" - $3.4 million
"Green Book" - $3 million


And that leaves me playing the Friday and Saturday edition of "Glass" along with "A Dog's Way Home" and three screens each of "On the Basis of Sex" and "Green Book". What say you?