Box Office Predictions for weekend of Jan 11-13

Todd Thatcher

A variety of newcomers hit the FML slate this weekend as canine tale "A Dog's Way Home", Kevin Hart/Bryan Cranston comedic drama "The Upside", and Keanu Reeves sci-fi thriller "Replicas" debut along with the nationwide expansions of Ruth Bader Ginsburg biopic "On the Basis of Sex" and Barry Jenkins period drama "If Beale Street Could Talk".

Todd from here bringing you my take on all of it as I expect "Aquaman" to log a fourth weekend in the top spot. #2 could be a little more interesting and I have that lost dog nabbing it - albeit with a sub teens premiere just ahead of "Upside". As for "Replicas", I have it flopping with just a 13th place showing. "Basis" is a little trickier, but my 7th place forecast puts it out of my range for playability. Same goes for my take on "Beale Street".

With none of the newbies factoring in, I actually like the pricing on "Escape Room" after its larger than anticipated opening. While the low-budget horror flick exists in a genre that often sees hefty sophomore weekend drops, I believe the chance exists for a drop of less than 50% due to lack of competition.

Here's how I have the selected features performing:

"Aquaman" - $17.7 million
"A Dog's Way Home" - $12.8 million
"The Upside" - $11.6 million
"Escape Room" - $9.4 million
"Mary Poppins Returns" - $8.8 million
"Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse" - $8.7 million
"On the Basis of Sex" - $7.9 million
"Bumblebee" - $7.6 million
"The Mule" - $5.8 million
"Vice" - $3.9 million
"If Beale Street Could Talk" - $3.6 million
"Bohemian Rhapsody" - $3.5 million
"Replicas" - $3.4 million
"Second Act" - $2.6 million
"Ralph Breaks the Internet" - $2.5 million

As mentioned, that has me playing the "Escape Room" 7x along with "Second Act". What say you?