Box Office Predictions for weekend of Dec 21-23

Todd Thatcher

After a rather lump of coal beginning to my Awards Season, I'm hoping some Christmas magic is sprinkled into my lineup as moviegoers get lots of new presents for their FML consideration. We have DC fish tale "Aquaman", Disney's half-century-plus later sequel "Mary Poppins Returns", Transformers prequel and unexpected critical darling "Bumblebee", Jennifer Lopez rom com "Second Act", Robert Zemeckis's fantasy drama "Welcome to Marwen" starring Steve Carell, and Saoirse Ronan vs. Margot Robbie in the historical pic "Mary Queen of Scots". Whew.


Todd from www.toddmthatcher.com here bringing you my take on the festive frame ahead. It all comes down to what over and under performs with the newbies. The ceiling could be high with "Aquaman", but my current mid 70s estimate leaves it out.


It's fair to wonder if "Poppins" is more of a steady performer throughout the next few weeks without a massive debut. It also opens Wednesday, but the head start could eat into its weekend gross.


"Bumblebee" looked like a potential flop, but the aforementioned buzz from reviews could change the dynamic.


Jennifer Lopez has exceeded expectations before and could cater to an underserved demographic with "Second Act".


And "Marwen"? Well, I'm starting to think my low projection could be generous as word of mouth simply seems nonexistent.


Finally, the less than 1000 screen number for "Scots" can't get me to have it as a filler play. So what gives? Well, I'm actually liking "The Mule" at the moment as BP after I didn't play Clint this past weekend.


Don't be surprised to see numbers shift here and there, but here's how I have the selected features performing:


"Aquaman" - $74.3 million
"Mary Poppins Returns" - $39.8 million
"Bumblebee" - $26.2 million
"Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse" - $19.8 million
"The Mule" - $10.2 million
"The Grinch" - $8.9 million
"Second Act" - $7.2 million
"Ralph Breaks the Internet" - $5 million
"Welcome to Marwen" - $3.8 million
"Mortal Engines" - $3.5 million
"Mary Queen of Scots" - $3 million
"Bohemian Rhapsody" - $2.9 million
"Creed II" - $2.8 million
"The Favourite" - $2.7 million
"Instant Family" - $2.3 million


And that leaves me singing with "Mary Poppins", swinging with "Spider-Man", and kicking it with the "Mule" 6x. What say you?