Box Office Estimates for December 7-9

Todd Thatcher

It is a time of hope here on FML. A time where we're all equals. And that, ladies and gents, will last until Friday when those first numbers begin trickling in.


Todd from www.toddmthatcher.com here bringing you my take on the weekend ahead as Awards Season begins! It's a brand new season as we all sit on $0 dollars and there's zero new wide releases to consider. We do have a 25th anniversary reissue of Steven Spielberg's Oscar-winning Holocaust epic "Schindler's List" and Natalie Portman's musical drama "Vox Lux" in the mix.


The top of the charts will be held by holdovers as nearly a dozen Christmas offerings are set for release over the following couple weekends. That means a three-peat is a near certainty for "Ralph Breaks the Internet" and the rest of the top 5 probably remaining the same.


It's fair to comp "Schindler's List" to the "Close Encounters of the Third Kind" rerelease in the fall of 2017. It made $1.7 million on just over 900 screens. I have "List" a tad lower (the lengthier running time could cause that minor difference).


As for "Lux", I haven't seen a screen count. I'm operating on a four screen limited release assumption with a sparkling per theater average of $88k. That's still not enough to make my lineup, but a changed count could certainly alter that equation.


For newcomers to the game, it's not a normal occurrence for six pictures to make my lineup. Nor is that common for a PC. However, my calculations over this lackluster frame could be a rare exception.


Here's how I have the selected features performing:


"Ralph Breaks the Internet" - $16.7 million
"The Grinch" - $12.8 million
"Creed II" - $10.1 million
"Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald" - $6.2 million
"Bohemian Rhapsody" - $5.8 million
"Instant Family" - $5.1 million
"Green Book" - $3.2 million
"The Possession of Hannah Grace" - $2.9 million
"Robin Hood" - $2.6 million
"Widows" - $2.5 million
"The Favourite" - $2.3 million
"Schindler's List" - $1.5 million
"A Star Is Born" - $1.4 million
"The Nutcracker and the Four Realms" - $759,000
"Vox Lux" - $353,000


And that aforementioned sextet would be "Ralph" 2x, "Beasts", "Green Book" 2x, "Favourite", "Star Is Born", and "Nutcracker". Happy new season y'all and what say you?