Box Office Estimates for November 30 - December 2

Todd Thatcher

Hey all, Todd from www.toddmthatcher.com here bringing you my take on the post Thanksgiving weekend ahead... which also happens to be our final frame of the current season! At the box office, this weekend has its own tradition. Newcomers usually don't fare well as audiences continue to gorge on leftovers.


There are two newbies to consider: awards hopeful "The Favourite" and "The Possession of Hannah Grace", which is not being discussed for any awards. Horror flick "Grace" is the wide release and we'll dispense of that first. My $3.2 million forecast has it opening in 10th place and nowhere near my lineup.


"The Favourite" is worth more discussion. The period piece with Olivia Colman, Emma Stone, and Rachel Weisz (all Oscar contenders) managed 2018's highest per theater average with $105,000 on four screens. It's anticipated for an expansion between 35-40 on Friday. If I drop the PTA to a robust $30,000 - that nets approximately $1.1 million and that falls just short of where I'd need to be... $1.2 million. It's definitely worth noting that tracking its screen count would be worth your while Thursday evening or Friday morning.


As for the many leftovers, this post holiday frame often sees them dip in the 40s or higher. I expect "Fantastic Beasts" and "Robin Hood" to suffer the most while "The Grinch" and "Green Book" (which has disappointed but holds an A+ Cinemascore rating) may not.


Here's how I have the selected features performing:


"Ralph Breaks the Internet" - $28.7 million


"The Grinch" - $20 million


"Creed II" - $18.2 million


"Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald" - $12.1 million


"Instant Family" - $7.9 million


"Bohemian Rhapsody" - $7.8 million


"Widows" - $4.1 million


"Green Book" - $4 million


"Robin Hood" - $3.9 million


"The Possession of Hannah Grace" - $3.2 million


"A Star Is Born" - $1.8 million


"The Nutcracker and the Four Realms" - $1.7 million


"The Favourite" - $1.1 million


"Boy Erased" - $878,000


"Nobody's Fool" - $428,000



And that has me rolling with "Ralph" twice, "Boy Erased" 5x, and "Nobody's Fool". Level of confidence? Zilch. But it's the last week and there's always next season! What say you?