Box Office Estimates for November 23 - 25

Todd Thatcher

Oh what a tangled web we weave every Thanksgiving weekend on Fantasy Movie League! We have an influx of new competitors vying for attention while leftovers all attempt smallish declines. Luckily we do so with the benefit of seeing both Wednesday and Thursday numbers as we scramble from our tryptophan comas on Friday morning to finalize our lineups.


Todd from www.toddmthatcher.com here bringing you my take on the holiday weekend ahead as five new pictures enter the frame. There's Disney sequel "Ralph Breaks the Internet", which should easily top the charts. By how much it does so will determine whether you can anchor with it. We have "Creed II" and the possibility that it packs a bigger opening punch that its predecessor three years ago (I've got it even with it). "Robin Hood" seems destined to flop, but those wily pricing gods have given it potential dare you numbers to play it. "Green Book" is an Oscar hopeful, but its limited release performance was understated. Will it score better as it expands to around 1000 theaters? And there's "The Front Runner" with Hugh Jackman. It's really flopped in limited fashion and I expect that to continue this weekend.


My current number crunching gives me a very family friendly screen. It's definitely worth noting that on Turkey Day weekend, holdovers often experience strong holds. I believe that could especially hold true for "Instant Family" despite its lackluster debut. This could apply to "Widows" as well.


Let's see if the dailies change the dynamic by Friday, but here's how I have the weekend playing out for the Friday to Sunday numbers:


"Ralph Breaks the Internet" - $54.4 million


"Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald" - $34.8 million


"The Grinch" - $30.1 million


"Creed II" - $28.4 million


"Bohemian Rhapsody" - $14.1 million


"Instant Family" - $12.7 million


"Robin Hood" - $9.7 million


"Widows" - $9.5 million


"Green Book" - $6.6 million


"A Star Is Born" - $4 million


"The Nutcracker and the Four Realms" - $3.8 million


"Overlord" - $2 million


"Boy Erased" - $1.5 million


"Nobody's Fool" - $1.1 million


"The Front Runner" - $712,000



And that does leave me anchoring with "Ralph" along with "Family" 2x and "Nutcracker" 5x. Happy Thanksgiving and what say you?