Box Office Estimates for November 16 - 18

Todd Thatcher

Hey all, Todd from www.toddmthatcher.com here bringing you my take on the weekend ahead as four new titles arrive for our FML consideration. There's the latest wizarding world experience "Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald", Mark Wahlberg comedy "Instant Family", critically acclaimed heist thriller "Widows" with Viola Davis, and Oscar hopeful "Boy Erased" with Lucas Hedges, Nicole Kidman, and Russell Crowe.


Let's take them one by one because I do believe it's a weekend where the newcomers will come into play. I have "Beasts" performing in similar fashion to the first Harry Potter sequel in that it will make slightly less than its predecessor. If so, the sequel could certainly provide a solid anchor with its pricing.


However, that's where "Family" comes in. Since my first box office prediction post a week ago, my estimate has risen from over $14 million to over $19 million. Even with significant competition for family audiences, I'm thinking this could tap into a female audience as well and manage to exceed expectations.


"Widows" is also hoping for a sizable female audience. Reviews will help, but I could see this as a picture that legs out solidly in the weeks to come.


"Boy Erased" will be decided based on theater count. I've seen 400 screens as the likely number. If that holds true, I believe $2 million is probably about as high as it goes. If that changes, so will my forecast.


Add that up and I'm currently all in on the "Family". Here's how I have the selected features performing:


"Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald" - $72.1 million


"The Grinch" - $38.8 million


"Bohemian Rhapsody" - $19.7 million


"Instant Family" - $19.4 million


"Widows" - $15.8 million


"A Star Is Born" - $5.7 million


"The Nutcracker and the Four Realms" - $4.9 million


"Overlord" - $4.9 million


"The Girl in the Spider's Web" - $3.5 million


"Nobody's Fool" - $3 million


"Venom" - $2.7 million


"Boy Erased" - $2 million


"Halloween" - $1.4 million


"The Hate U Give" - $1.2 million


"Can You Ever Forgive Me?" - $988,000



As mentioned, that has me rolling with the "Family" 5x along with "Star", "Venom", and "Halloween". What say you?