Box Office Estimates for October 12 - 14
Hey all, Todd from www.toddmthatcher.com bringing you the best of my take on the weekend ahead. We have a bunch of new options to consider. They are the Neil Armstrong moon tale "First Man", spooky sequel "Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween", Drew Goddard pulp thriller "Bad Times at the El Royale", expanding period piece "Colette", and the grand return of Best of the Rest.
Let's start with anchors. As we all saw this past weekend, "Venom" obliterated the October opening record by a mile while "A Star Is Born" met expectations. My feeling is that "Venom" could see a drop of 60% or more while "Star" might only fall in the low to mid 30s range. It will certainly be worth keeping an eye on dailies, but that estimate makes Cooper and Gaga a more attractive play than Mr. Hardy - even with "Venom" keeping the top spot.
"First Man" will likely experience solid holds for weeks, but my mid 20s forecast has it landing in third place. My high teens expectation for "Goosebumps" puts it in fourth. The weekend's other wide release is "El Royale". Despite decent reviews, I expect some vacancies in multiplexes and see it checking in behind "Smallfoot" for sixth place. It's my personal BSA for the frame ahead.
Now we get to the filler. It's worth noting that at this juncture on Tuesday, theater counts could prove to be a big factor. My estimates could change. With expansions planned for "The Hate U Give", "Free Solo", and "Colette", I still don't have any of them making enough to earn my screen time. However, an unexpected increase in showings could alter that dynamic.
As for the BOTR, I'm putting that figure at $760,000. This is where I anticipate "Hell Fest" or perhaps "The Old Man & The Gun" ending up at.
Here's how I have the selected features performing:
"Venom" - $31.2 million
"A Star Is Born" - $28.3 million
"First Man" - $23.5 million
"Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween" - $17.3 million
"Smallfoot" - $9 million
"Bad Times at the El Royale" - $8 million
"Night School" - $6.2 million
"The House with a Clock in Its Walls" - $4.2 million
"A Simple Favor" - $1.8 million
"The Nun" - $1.4 million
"Colette" - $1.4 million
"The Hate U Give" - $1.3 million
"Crazy Rich Asians" - $1.2 million
"Free Solo" - $1 million
"Best of the Rest" - $760,000
And that leaves me playing "A Star Is Born", "Goosebumps", "House/Clock" 5x, and "Favor". What say you?