Box Office Estimates for Feb 23 - 25

Todd Thatcher

Hey all, Todd from www.toddmthatcher.com here bringing you my take on the weekend ahead! As we continue to pick our collective jaws off the floor with the opening haul of "Black Panther", we have three new titles debuting. They are the Jason Bateman/Rachel McAdams comedy "Game Night", Natalie Portman sci-fi thriller "Annihilation", and YA romantic drama "Every Day".


And we very understandably have another daily split with the King of Wakanda. Judging from massive blockbusters of the past in their second weekends, the FML pricing gods have correctly figured Saturday will outshine Friday and Sunday. Friday is likely to be lowest. That said, I like its pricing.


"Game Night", if it manages to exceed current expectations, could be a serious factor and a lineup anchor. However, I couldn't quite get there with it, though it does make an appearance. My forecast for "Annihilation" has dropped steadily in the last week and I now have it in fourth behind "Peter Rabbit". As for "Every Day"? I'm not expecting much.


My total estimate for the sophomore frame of "Panther" puts it at $101.8 million. Here's how I have all the selected features performing:


"Black Panther" (Saturday) - $42.8 million


"Black Panther" (Sunday) - $30.8 million


"Black Panther" (Friday) - $28.2 million


"Game Night" - $16.3 million


"Peter Rabbit" - $11.6 million


"Annihilation" - $10.4 million


"Fifty Shades Freed" - $6.9 million


"Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle" - $5.2 million


"The 15:17 to Paris" -$4.5 million


"The Greatest Showman" - $3.9 million


"Every Day" - $2.9 million


"Early Man" - $2.15 million


"Maze Runner: The Death Cure" - $1.2 million


"The Post" - $1.2 million


"The Shape of Water" $1.1 million



That leaves me playing the Friday edition of "Panther" twice as well as "Game Night" and a 5x showing of "Early Man". What say you?