Week 12 Box Office Estimates

Todd Thatcher

Hey all - Todd from www.toddmthatcher.com here with my take on Week 12.

As we arrive at the penultimate weekend of this current FML season, nearly half of the pictures from week 11 are gone as five new pictures join the fray. Debuting in wide release are "Justice League", "Wonder", and "The Star". In more limited fashion are Oscar hopefuls "Lady Bird" and "Three Billboards from Ebbing, Missouri", replacing Oscar nopefuls like "Suburbicon" and "The Foreigner".

Unsurprisingly, "Justice" is in the league of daily pricing and my $128.4 million prediction would give it the third highest opening of 2017, about $6 million above what "Thor: Ragnarok" achieved two weeks ago.

Many questions abound:

Could "Wonder" or "The Star" exceed expectations? Reviews for "Wonder" have been (a bit surprisingly) quite encouraging and it could have sleeper status. And will faith based family crowds propel "The Star" to greater heights?

Both "Daddy's Home 2" and "Murder on the Orient Express" surpassed expectations in their debuts. Could an anchored lineup with them be in play or are the superheroes above them too enticing? It will also be interesting to see which of them has a larger sophomore decline.

And how about the Academy contenders "Bird" and "Missouri"? Theater counts later this week will put their viability more into focus, but both could certainly factor in.

Here's how I have the selected FML features performing:

"Justice League" (Friday) - $58.1 million

"Justice League" (Saturday) - $41.1 million

"Justice League" (Sunday) - $29.2 million

"Thor: Ragnarok" - $25 million

"Daddy's Home 2" - $15.9 million

"Murder on the Orient Express" - $14.5 million

"Wonder" - $12.9 million

"The Star" - $10.3 million

"A Bad Moms Christmas" - $7 million

"Lady Bird" - $2.9 million

"Jigsaw" - $1.45 million

"Boo 2! A Madea Halloween" - $844,000

"Blade Runner 2049" - $763,000

"Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri" - $755,000

"Geostorm" - $721,000

That leaves me playing the Saturday edition of "Justice" along with "Thor", "Wonder", and a 5x play of "Lady Bird". What say you?