Week 12 Box Office Estimates

Todd Thatcher

Well - we're at the second to last week of the current FML frame and it's Presidents Day weekend. That means a four-day holiday weekend with that same number of pictures entering the lineup. And not one of them is a sequel or spin-off (miracle)! They are action epic "The Great Wall" starring Matt Damon, Ice Cube/Charlie Day comedy "Fist Fight", Gore Verbinski directed horror thriller "A Cure for Wellness", and bilingual rom com "Everybody Loves Somebody".

None of them factor into my screen. If you look over opening weekend grosses for films premiering on this particular weekend this decade, you'll find a slew of mid 20s numbers. That's where I have both "Wall" and "Fight" at. Solid reviews may have assisted "Wellness" but it didn't get them and I'm diagnosing a low teens haul. As for "Somebody", it could be a wild card but its low number of screens (between 300-400) doesn't inspire hope for me.

As for holdovers, I expect "Lego Batman" to have a very small decline after a somewhat less than expected opening. I also foresee very similar grosses for "Fifty Shades Darker" and "John Wick: Chapter 2" in their sophomore frames, with Mr. Reeves barely edging Christian and Anastasia.

Here's how I have the 15 selected FML features performing:

"The Lego Batman Movie" - $49.4 million

"The Great Wall" - $25.6 million

"Fist Fight" - $25.1 million

"John Wick: Chapter 2" - $21.5 million

"Fifty Shades Darker" - $21.3 million

"A Cure for Wellness" - $13.2 million

"Split" - $7.2 million

"Hidden Figures" - $6.2 million

"A Dog's Purpose" - $5.3 million

"La La Land" - $3.6 million

"Lion" - $3.5 million

"Rings" - $2.8 million

"Everybody Loves Somebody" - $1.7 million

"Sing" - $1.2 million

"Rogue One: A Star Wars Story" - $1 million

That leaves me playing the Lego Caped Crusader along with "Split" 3x, "A Dog's Purpose", "Sing", and "Rogue" 2x. What say you, FMLers?