Thursday Fandango Check - Fall Week 12

Ok, time to see how showtimes are shaping up for the Nielsen Top 40+1 markets. Data table is below...

analyzer.fmlnerd.com/showtimes

And now, below, I present the FSS gross/show that you'll need to expect to in order for a movie to win the bonus. I get a lot of questions how I derive this, so here's a quick primer on how I calc this...

- Total showtimes are set equal to [Shows/Theater] observed in the top 40+1 multiplied by the total number of theaters showing found on BOMojo and then slightly reduced to account for the fact that many theaters in the top 40+1 have far more screens than theaters in smaller areas. This factor ranges from 70%-98% and depends on the shows/theater.
- If the theater count is known at the time of this writing, I use that theater count as the national number. If not, I take the observed theater change in the top 40+1 data and apply it to the national number with some adjustment based on how the Top 40+1 week over week dropped compared to the national drop. If the theater count is not known and it's a platform release expanding, I assume the Top 40+1 represents 40% of the total locations (based off past observation).
- BO Receipts are set equal to CCR's Bonus Bar unless new information necessitates a change.
- For new releases with Thursday previews, I am now using a sampling of a few markets to see how many Thursday shows there are relative to the Top 40+1 counts, and then multiplying the total shows by that factor. For historicals, I have for now used a proxy of 10% as I continue to refine this methodology.

Bonus Bar is being revised to $120k. I'm basing this primarily on BOR's projections plus "other stuff."

Justice League Fri | $1,346/show |DEBUT
Justice League Sat | $1,194/show |DEBUT
Justice League Sun | $919/show |DEBUT
Thor: Ragnarok | $401/show |-15.7%
Daddy's Home 2 | $315/show |-19.1%
Murder on the Orient Express | $321/show |-26.7%
Wonder | $325/show |DEBUT
The Star | $297/show |DEBUT
A Bad Moms' Christmas | $221/show |16.3%
Lady Bird | $528/show |DEBUT
Jigsaw | $192/show |89.5%
Boo 2! | $172/show |88.3%
Blade Runner 2049 | $302/show |52.1%
Geostorm | $232/show |140.6%
Three Billboards | $653/show |DEBUT

- 143k shows for Justice League is about 5k fewer than Thor ended up with two weeks ago. The total $/show for the weekend works out to roughly $1,171/show. That's about $100/show more than Beauty & The Beast. But it is $100/show less than Baahubali 2... Which charged about $40/ticket. So...
- 51k shows for Wonder puts it nearly identical to A Dog's Purpose in its OW. ADP grossed $359/show that weekend.
- 48k shows for The Star is about 9k more than My Little Pony in its OW. This is a bit of a no man's land count for animated, so comps are few and far between. MLP grossed $223/show.
- Lady Bird at 6800 shows in what I am estimating is 355 theaters; definitely keep an eye on that. That would put it roughly around The Big Sick in its first FML weekend, which grossed $450/show. Some more interesting comps from last year would be La La Land 12/16 ($744/show), Manchester By The Sea on 12/9 ($474/show, also its 2nd weekend over 100 theaters), and Moonlight 11/4 ($590/show).
- Three Billboards at 1500 shows in what I'm estimating as 55 theaters. Besides the aformentioned Moonlight 11/4 comp, the only other sub-100 TC comp that makes sense is Battle of the Sexes, but that was only 21 theaters. It grossed $921/show.

- Edited

13 Replies

  • This is pretty much lining up with MOST of my assumptions.

  • Lady Bird at 6800 shows in what I am estimating is 355 theaters;
    Three Billboards at 1500 shows in what I'm estimating as 55 theaters.

    Hooray - the week may be interesting, after all! These numbers are waaaaay higher than I was guessing (96 and 34, respectively).

  • @Phil - Are the percent drops correct for some of these holdovers? I might be reading this incorrectly, but for instance you have MotOE needing $321 per show and -75.6% from last week to get the bonus. That would imply that it made $1264 per show last week, right? That seems way too high...

  • Good call BD - I had an issue with my last week data where the showcount was cut by a third (I have to be extra careful to catch everything when daily splits pop up the week before). Fixed now!

  • Biff is right...this could be interesting after all.

    @Phil: Love you Baahubali 2 reference. :-)

  • @BSD: 68k shows for MOTOE last week for 28.6M results in about 420 per show.

  • 4th - when BSD commented, I did have a crazy data issue. My sheet had MotOE's $/show last weekend around $1300, making the WoW drop look absurd.

  • Indeed, crossed posts. All is good!

  • Good work as always Phil.

  • 238 for Lady Bird

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