Fall17 Week 12 Bonus Bar & Contenders

Bonus bar set at 105K. Really didn't like the pricing this week, seems like they forgot that JL was opening & that last weekend was a bit inflated due to Veterans Day or they spent too much time figuring out all the new movies in the slate. Don't see any holdovers in contention. Just look at the Fantastic Beasts weekend last year to get a sense of how big some of the drops will probably be.

TOP BP CONTENDERS

JUSTICE LEAGUE SATURDAY | 45.6m (New) | Last LRF at $130m. If JL is going to go as high as it needs for one of its days to end up as the BP, it needs good WoM & thus a good Saturday. None of the previous DCEU releases are good comps for what split to expect: WW (Awesome WoM & summer opening), MoS (Summer + Father's Day), SS (Late Summer + terrible WoM) & BvS (Good Friday + Easter, bad WoM). DCEU films are more front-loaded than Marvel. Early reactions are decent & it seems WoM won't kill this one. Dominating in Pulse & MT.
WONDER | 14.7m (New) | Last LRF at $14m. Based on a pretty popular children's book. Early reviews are decent. Already made appearances on MT & Pulse. Can it survive next to JL?
THE STAR | 12.6m (New) | Last LRF at $12m, down from $13m. It's been a while since we got a true family film, MLP was the last animated film in the market. Weird weekend to open, having to battle with Wonder for JL scraps before facing off vs. Coco next week (Taking advantage of Veterans Day weekend made way more sense). Could get lost in the shuffle & tank given that it looks like the third best option for families (And that's not counting Thor & DH2). Could draw a religious crowd. Sony Pictures Animation has never had a film open below $11m.

NEED MORE INFO

LADY BIRD | 3.2m (152%) | No idea on where the TC could possibly land, A24 does it on a case by case basis. Their two previous big Oscar contenders Moonlight & Room were slow-rolled. Fandango spot check doesn't point at a massive expansion. Given Deadline comment last week: "A24 will expand Lady Bird into top markets next weekend ahead of a nationwide expansion over the U.S. Thanksgiving weekend." Wouldn't be shocked if they followed Brooklyn's blue print, with a small expansion this weekend to 100-200 theaters, followed by a much larger expansion next week. If it ends up below 200 theaters, I don't expect it to contend for the bonus.
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI | 0.8m (New) | Shared my original thoughts here: ( https://fantasymovieleague.com/chatter/topiccomments?boardId=leaders&offset=21&topicId=376499). Tl;dr: Based on deadline's info & previous release patterns by Fox Searchlight, I expected 3 Billboards to end up in less than 30 theaters. However, skimming through Deadline's posts, I found this: "On November 17, the film will head to 12 new markets while expanding in New York and L.A. for a total of around 50 theaters." If that turns out to be true, this should end up as a big contender.

- Edited

23 Replies

  • UPPER MID TIER

    JUSTICE LEAGUE FRIDAY | 66.8m (New) | Last LRF at $130m. If JL is front-loaded enough that Saturday drops 32% from Friday, then it's not sniffing the BP. It still should end up as a decent value & there's a chance it sneaks in as an anchor.
    JUSTICE LEAGUE SUNDAY | 35.1m (New) | Last LRF at $130m. Priced at a 23% drop from Saturday, which is way too aggressive for a non summer-film. Fantastic Beasts & Thor: Ragnarok which both skewed younger & less-frontloaded didn't come close & JL is no Beauty & the Beast.
    A BAD MOMS CHRISTMAS | 8.1m (-30%) | Only holdover that has a chance given that it should keep most of it volume & is counter-programming to JL. How big of a hit it takes from Wonder will probably determine its chances.

    MID TIER

    THOR: RAGNAROK | 28.2m (-50%) | The previous Thor film dropped 60% vs. Catching Fire. Dr. Strange dropped 60% vs. Fantastic Beasts. Even if it catches overflow from JL & even with the obvious tone differences between DC & Marvel films, I don't see how it goes high enough to contend, especially given the Veterans Day bump it got last weekend.
    MURDER ON THE ORIENT EXPRESS (2017) | 16m (-43%) | Skewed as old as many were expecting & possibly even older, from Deadline: "50% over-50 (per CinemaScore's Friday night)". That demo doesn't usually rush out to see films early, so it does point at its OW being very successful. Still, given the 5.5% Thursday, the B cinemascore/ 61% RT audience liked it, the bump from VD & the amount of competition this weekend (even if this is the film that should see the lowest impact), it seems like a stretch to project such a good hold.

    LOWER MID TIER / WP CONTENDERS

    DADDY'S HOME 2 | 18.4m (-39%) | Ended with a higher multiplier than most expected & above most forecasts, again pointing at a hidden audience (families, big latin crowd). Should take a massive hit from the JL, Wonder, Star triple family threat. Dumb & Dumber To dropped 61% vs. Mockingjay, as did Get Hard vs. Furious 7.
    JIGSAW | 1.7m (-51%) | TC + competition
    TYLER PERRY'S BOO 2! A MADEA HALLOWEEN | 0.9m (-54%) | TC + competition
    BLADE RUNNER 2049 | 0.8m (-40%) | TC + competition
    GEOSTORM | 0.8m (-46%) | TC + competition

  • Considering that there are 7 new entries if you count the splits, I'm not shocked pricing ended up as it did

  • @Furiosa Not shocked either, but a bit disappointed. DH2 at -39%?? Thor at -50%?? JL Sunday at -23% from Saturday?

  • JL could underwhelm as well. Havent checked but as said elsewhere quite a bit of money still around that JL has to compete with. 2 over 25M second weekers, 1 over 100M 3rd weeker,...

  • Admittedly the JL Sunday has me bamboozled.

  • Just taking a guess, but more than likely the recent performances such as Thor: Ragnarok and It having strong Sundays overall resulted in a plug and play analysis.

  • @HH It had a 37% Sat to Sun drop, Thor: R had a 27% Sat to Sun drop. Neither would help explain the 23% drop at which JL Sun was priced.

    My guess, they saw that SS, WW & MoS all finished with sub 22% Sunday drops, but didn't adjust for the fact that all 3 were summer releases.

  • Should I just post the BSA this afternoon?

  • @BSWhite - Looks to me like you've got a few obvious candidates to pick from.

  • Sure, Mr. White, plenty to choose from, but DH2 and Thor would certainly be boring...

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