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Ok, time to see how showtimes are shaping up for the Nielsen Top 40+1 markets. Data table is below...
And now, below, I present the FSS gross/show that you'll need to expect to in order for a movie to win the bonus. I get a lot of questions how I derive this, so here's a quick primer on how I calc this...
- Total showtimes are set equal to [Shows/Theater] observed in the top 40+1 multiplied by the total number of theaters showing found on BOMojo and then slightly reduced to account for the fact that many theaters in the top 40+1 have far more screens than theaters in smaller areas. This factor ranges from 70%-98% and depends on the shows/theater.
- If the theater count is known at the time of this writing, I use that theater count as the national number. If not, I take the observed theater change in the top 40+1 data and apply it to the national number with some adjustment based on how the Top 40+1 week over week dropped compared to the national drop. If the theater count is not known and it's a platform release expanding, I assume the Top 40+1 represents 40% of the total locations (based off past observation).
- BO Receipts are set equal to CCR's Bonus Bar unless new information necessitates a change.
- For new releases with Thursday previews, I am now using a sampling of a few markets to see how many Thursday shows there are relative to the Top 40+1 counts, and then multiplying the total shows by that factor. For historicals, I have for now used a proxy of 10% as I continue to refine this methodology.
Bonus Bar will remain at $100k.
Movie | Gross/show | Change from LW
Thor: Ragnarok | $574/show |-28.5%
Murder on the Orient Express | $437/show |DEBUT
Daddy's Home 2 | $352/show |DEBUT
A Bad Moms' Christmas | $182/show |-24.8%
Jigsaw | $105/show |-27.1%
Boo 2! | $124/show |-14.0%
Geostorm | $121/show |13.1%
Thank You For Your Service | $239/show |180.4%
Happy Death Day | $94/show |-0.6%
Blade Runner 2049 | $184/show |-3.8%
Only the Brave | $154/show |45.5%
Victoria & Abdul | $147/show |12.9%
The Foreigner | $118/show |7.4%
It | $80/show |-15.7%
Suburbicon | $2,627/show |4192.0%
- 68k shows for Murder on the Orient Express is about 1k fewer than Jack Reacher 2 last fall. I don't know why I keep going back to Sully as a comp for this, but it works well on a $/show basis - Sully grossed about $455/show last fall, which is right around what MotOE needs.
- 79k shows for Daddy's Home 2 is about 4k more than Central Intelligence when it opened last summer. Really not a lot of PG-13 comedy comps in this volume range over the last couple years. CI grossed $472/show, but that was summer.
- So, my method puts Suburbicon in about 40 theaters, so that pct is probably wrong, but I'm leaving it there b/c it makes me laugh.
- TYFYS mostly splitting screens now, so it's gonna need an amazing holiday bump to have a shot.
That Suburbicon number is hilarious. In case you're wondering, 20.9% of FML is currently playing Suburbicon despite IT being a perfectly valid substitute.
That Suburbicon number is amazing.
It definitely seems like the best bet out of the bottom-feeders this week.
I just hate having to include It in the films I'm looking closely at.
I was a little surprised by the deep cut in TYFYS's theaters being Veterans Day weekend , but then again, with it barely being over $1K per theater last weekend I probably shouldn't have been.
This week would have been so much more interesting if Suburbicon and IT had been replaced by Lady Bird and Let There Be Sorbo.
The good thing about this weekend is, most lineups that aren't BMC-heavy require a lot of bottom feeders. So that allows a bet on a discount bonus without undermining the rest of the lineup too much.
Did they say why they only added the 2 movies this week?
Probably couldn't decide on TCs for the other options, didn't want to risk a potential runaway BP.
This certainly keeps all my contenders in contention.