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Ok, time to see how showtimes are shaping up for the Nielsen Top 40+1 markets. Data table is below...
And now, below, I present the FSS gross/show that you'll need to expect to in order for a movie to win the bonus. I get a lot of questions how I derive this, so here's a quick primer on how I calc this...
- Total showtimes are set equal to [Shows/Theater] observed in the top 40+1 multiplied by the total number of theaters showing found on BOMojo and then slightly reduced to account for the fact that many theaters in the top 40+1 have far more screens than theaters in smaller areas. This factor ranges from 70%-98% and depends on the shows/theater.
- If the theater count is known at the time of this writing, I use that theater count as the national number. If not, I take the observed theater change in the top 40+1 data and apply it to the national number with some adjustment based on how the Top 40+1 week over week dropped compared to the national drop. If the theater count is not known and it's a platform release expanding, I assume the Top 40+1 represents 40% of the total locations (based off past observation).
- BO Receipts are set equal to CCR's Bonus Bar unless new information necessitates a change.
- For new releases with Thursday previews, I am now using a sampling of a few markets to see how many Thursday shows there are relative to the Top 40+1 counts, and then multiplying the total shows by that factor. For historicals, I have for now used a proxy of 10% as I continue to refine this methodology.
I'll be leaving the Bonus Bar at $70k.
Movie | Gross/show | Change from LW
Happy Death Day | $403/show |DEBUT
Blade Runner 2049 | $213/show |-35.4%
The Foreigner | $255/show |DEBUT
The Mountain Between Us | $169/show |-28.0%
It | $108/show |-20.0%
My Little Pony | $174/show |-26.9%
Victoria & Abdul | $461/show |18.4%
American Made | $133/show |-31.0%
Kingsman 2 | $128/show |-31.5%
LEGO Ninjago | $144/show |-2.7%
Marshall | $330/show |DEBUT
Flatliners | $120/show |2.3%
Battle of the Sexes | $115/show |1.4%
American Assassin | $86/show |-3.3%
Til Death Do Us Part | $121/show |3.5%
- 61k shows for Happy Death Day puts it about 9k ahead of Ouija: Origin of Evil's OW last October. That's just a few dollars higher than The Bye Bye Man ($384/show) in its OW back in January.
- 39k shows for The Foreigner is about 1k fewer than Logan Lucky its OW. If Foreigner can basically be American Assassin ($247/show), it's in with a chance.
- 13k shows for Marshall is about 2300 more than Victoria & Abdul last weekend. It needs to approach its number of $389/show for a bonus win. But this is a TC that can go either way - we've always got Hands of Stone ($143/show) on the low end.
- No major losers this week in terms of volume other than what you'd expect with AA and Flat, who lose about 50% and 40% of their shows respectively.
So, that discount bonus for AA looking unlikely.
That's the only thing this clears up, really. Hell of a week.
So I still have to wait for Thursday numbers?
Ninjago and It both lost around 500 theaters ftr, that's not insignificant. - Edited