Fall17 Week 7 Bonus Bar & Contenders

Bonus bar set at 70K. Remember to adjust for the inflated Sunday last weekend.

TOP BP CONTENDERS

HAPPY DEATH DAY | 24.5m (New) | See Ari's Bold Prediction: https://fantasymovieleague.com/chatter/topiccomments?boardId=leaders&prevOffset=11&topicId=356797
KINGSMAN: THE GOLDEN CIRCLE | 5m (-43%) | Took a lower hit from BR than I expected. Should hold on to most theaters. Double rebound after seeing hits from AM & BR, The Foreigner shouldn't come close to those 2.
AMERICAN MADE | 5m (-41%) | Seems like it took the biggest hit from BR out of all the slate, which is probably explained by the fact that both ended up with men over 25 as their main demo by far (50% for BR, 44% for AM) & failed to attract viewers under 25 (23% for BR, 18% for AM). Should hold on to most of its theaters.
THE LEGO NINJAGO MOVIE | 4.9m (-30%) | Post MLP rebound. Gets no competition. Should hold on to most of its TC. Storks leveled out & started having great holds in week 4.

UPPER MID TIER

BLADE RUNNER 2049 | 16.6m (-49%) | My conclusion for why BR underperformed so dramatically is that everyone overstated its target audience, women over 25 & both women & men under 25 just weren't interested. It's hard to get over $40m if you're a one quadrant film. It ended up being closer to something like JW2 than to the movies we were comping it with at this point last week. I don't expect it to contend for the BP, but given the WoM, I could see a surprising hold when considering the giant Thursday % & how it skewed to an older audience. Arrival adjusted for the higher Thursday % & Columbus Day seems like a good starting point.
THE FOREIGNER | 10m (New) | Last LRf is $10m, in line with what it needs to reach the BB, so I need to keep it in consideration. But I'm not really high on this one. This seems like a film that will most likely take a hit from the sheer amount of R rated competition out there. TC seems like a huge red flag. STX has its share of hits, but it also has some big misses. We've seen Brosnan in this type of movie before with disappointing results (November Man & No Escape), so if you have this as a big contender, you're probably hoping for Chan to carry this film to a $4K+ pta
AMERICAN ASSASSIN | 0.6m (-55%) | Competition + TCs probably takes it out of BP contention, but it's priced pretty enticingly & should end up as a solid value at worst given that it's been held down the last 3 weeks by new releases. - Edited

13 Replies

  • MID TIER

    THE MOUNTAIN BETWEEN US | 6.9m (-34%) | Perfomed like a romantic comedy / drama rather than a disaster film, with its main audience being older women, so it ended up as a perfect complement to BR given both audience make-ups. Best comps will probably be movies like The Intern & Home Again, which would point at mid to upper 30's drop. Cinema score was good at A-, but it only has a 52% liked it rating in RT, so don't expect great WoM.
    IT | 6.7m (-33%) | Still need to do more research on a possible Friday the 13th bump, but I'm a little lower than most on this one, mainly due to competition. HDD should kill with the under 25 crowd, taking a big part of It's audience despite the difference in ratings & if it comes out with good reviews, then it could even take the core horror audience as well.
    MY LITTLE PONY: THE MOVIE | 5.9m (-34%) | Was pretty front-loaded for an animated film, with the low Friday to Saturday increase standing out. The show fans (including Bronies) seem to have come out for the opening day & then the interest wavered. Would be surprised if this one ended with a lower week 2 drop than Ninjago.
    MARSHALL | 4.3m (New) | TC is a giant red flag considering it's in no mans land (Too wide for specialty & obviously too low to reach most audiences) & ORF always seems to have inflated TCs. Only 2K WTS ratings. Needs a $5,000+ pta for contention, which seems optimistic. No reviews out yet seems a bit weird considering this one had awards hype at a point. Topic seems extremely relevant at this moment, but that didn't seem to do a whole lot for Detroit.
    BATTLE OF THE SEXES | 1.7m (-34%) | After disappointing for three straight weekends, it's probably easy to say people just aren't interested in a tennis movie. Don't expect another expansion & actually see it losing theaters. The pta bar is probably going to end up being really low, but I'm not sure I can bet on it after last weekend.

    LOWER MID TIER / WP CONTENDERS

    VICTORIA AND ABDUL | 5.6m (34%) | Can't see it contending unless it sees a major expansion & I don't expect one to happen given that it hasn't been FF MO for this type of movie. ZW, Atonement, Theory of Everything & The Beguiled all saw gradual ≈ 250 theater increases after they first crossed 600 theaters.
    FLATLINERS (2017) | 2.4m (-40%) | Should take a pretty big TC hit & HDD is going to steal away all of its audience.
    TILL DEATH DO US PART | 0.5m (-35%) | Priced way too aggressively, although it did have a pretty solid week 2 hold. Expecting a sizable TC cut. - Edited

  • D

  • Are the estimates you post after the name of the film actual estimates that you think the film will make over the weekend or are those the numbers the films have to reach to get he bonus?

  • @Rosy The latter

  • Rosy - Second option.

  • The Foreigner is an interesting one this week.

    On the one hand, we've had week after week of R rated films....the market has been over saturated.

    On the other hand, you've got Chan, who hasn't appeared in a live action movie since The Karate Kid remake, 7 years ago. The guy has a following, but the thing will be - how many want to come out to see a 63 year old Chan?

    Other items of note:

    Theater Count & Distributor - 2300 theaters and STX Entertainment are a bit of a red flag here. As CCR detailed, STX has been hit and miss.

    Early reviews are surprisingly good for The Foreigner, and the ones that I've read, highlight the fact that they emphasize Chan looking his age, yet still being able to kick some ass. It kind of reminds me of when Stallone starred in Cop Land.

    So, as of now, I haven't dismissed this from consideration this week.

  • @BS One of my questions with TF is that Chan is known for his action-comedy Pg-13 films. This seems like a huge step out of his usual roles given the R rating & darker tone & I'm not sure that's going to be a good or a bad thing.

    As for the reviews, there are only 5 right now in RT & the average rating is a very mediocre 5.5, so I'd take the 80% with a grain of salt & wouldn't be surprised if this ends just below the fresh line at the end.

  • This may be Chan's first role as a villain, too (although he seems more like an anti-hero). I'm wondering if that'll hurt given his image, or help because it's something unique. Shades of Tom Hanks in Road to Perdition.

  • The reviews do seem to highlight that Chan's performance elevates The Foreigner a step above the typical B movie action/revenge type film.

    In terms of believability, I consider Chan to also be a notch above a Brosnan, or Costner, or Penn, like in these comps:

    http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=gunman2015.htm

    http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=novemberman.htm

    http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=main&id=threedaystokill.htm

  • @BS We seem to be looking at the same comp list:

    http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=similar&id=novemberman.htm

    Out of the movies referenced in that list, 19 ended up in between 2,000 & 3,000 theaters. Only 6 of those ended up with a 4,000+ pta & none crossed $4,700.

    Of those 6, two got there thanks to a holiday weekend:

    http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=american10.htm
    http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=machete.htm

    Three were Statham films:

    http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=mechanic.htm
    http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=crank.htm
    http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=transporter3.htm

    Which leaves this one as your optimistic comp:

    http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=threedaystokill.htm

    Given how crowded the market is, I don't see this one getting there unless good reviews continue or it gets a larger TC than projected. Well, the other one is if I'm completely underestimating Chan's fans. - Edited

Add Reply