Thursday Fandango Check - Fall Week 6

Ok, time to see how showtimes are shaping up for the Nielsen Top 40+1 markets. Data table is below...

analyzer.fmlnerd.com/showtimes

And now, below, I present the FSS gross/show that you'll need to expect to in order for a movie to win the bonus. I get a lot of questions how I derive this, so here's a quick primer on how I calc this...

- Total showtimes are set equal to [Shows/Theater] observed in the top 40+1 multiplied by the total number of theaters showing found on BOMojo and then slightly reduced to account for the fact that many theaters in the top 40+1 have far more screens than theaters in smaller areas. This factor ranges from 70%-98% and depends on the shows/theater.
- If the theater count is known at the time of this writing, I use that theater count as the national number. If not, I take the observed theater change in the top 40+1 data and apply it to the national number with some adjustment based on how the Top 40+1 week over week dropped compared to the national drop. If the theater count is not known and it's a platform release expanding, I assume the Top 40+1 represents 40% of the total locations (based off past observation).
- BO Receipts are set equal to CCR's Bonus Bar unless new information necessitates a change.
- For new releases with Thursday previews, I am now using a sampling of a few markets to see how many Thursday shows there are relative to the Top 40+1 counts, and then multiplying the total shows by that factor. For historicals, I have for now used a proxy of 10% as I continue to refine this methodology.

I'll be leaving the Bonus Bar at $70k.

Movie | Gross/show | Change from LW
Blade Runner 2049 | $635/show |DEBUT
The Mountain Between Us | $235/show |DEBUT
It | $143/show |-35.6%
Kingsman 2 | $224/show |1.6%
American Made | $212/show |-32.6%
My Little Pony | $224/show |DEBUT
LEGO Ninjago | $188/show |19.1%
Victoria & Abdul | $357/show |DEBUT
Flatliners | $92/show |-45.0%
Battle of the Sexes | $160/show |-8.4%
American Assassin | $153/show |70.0%
The Stray | $124/show |DEBUT
Home Again | $121/show |71.2%
Til Death Do Us Part | $123/show |DEBUT
mother! | $136/show |53.7%

- 92k shows for Blade Runner 2049 is about 2k more than Kingsman 2 when it opened a couple weeks back. K2 grossed $433/show, a number BR2049 needs to crush. Jason Bourne works as a great size comp, which grossed $648/show in 91k shows last summer.
- 44k shows for The Mountain Between Us is about 3k fewer than Home Again's OW. All TMBU needs to do is finish with $20/show of Kidnap ($255) to make a run at the bonus.
- 39k shows for My Little Pony puts it about 1k fewer than Leap! when it opened in August. Obviously scale is very different here, but Lego Ninjago was pretty close to MLP's $/show threshold when it opened to $238/show. Animated comps in this showtime range are none too friendly and include Rock Dog ($112) and The Wild Life ($92), so MLP will need to significantly outgross those to have a shot.
- 11k shows for Victoria & Abdul is about what Tulip Fever opened with over Labor Day weekend. It'll need to just beat out The Beguiled ($305/show) in its first FML weekend to have a bonus shot.
- 9600 shows for The Stray is about 400 fewer than A Question of Faith last weekend. AQoF grossed $103/show. Last Fall, Hillsong grossed almost exactly what the Stray needs on a per show basis at $123/show.
- I have Til Death Do Us Part at 5700 shows in 490 locations. No great comps in the data given that it's week 2 and all, but I did want to point out that the Top 40+1 doesn't see any sort of expansion in the cards.
- Big surprise showtime losers include Kingsman 2 (losing 46% of its volume) & Lego Ninjago (45%). Both do retain one full screen and are moreso shedding more theaters than anticipated, with a projected loss of 1000 theaters each, so keep an eye on those TC's.
- Non-surprises losing 2/3rds of their current volume include American Assassin, Home Again, and mother!

4 Replies

  • Not that it'll matter, but that KM2 number is astounding. I guess there is a glut of R movies and something had to go with BR showing up, but still, I'd have figured KM and It to split those loses.

  • These numbers are a bit weird, wonder if some theaters weren't captured:

    - Week 2 movies losing 10%+ of their TCs
    - It losing 10% theaters, but adding shows

  • Good call CCR - I didn't even notice that. We'll probably need a revision when actual TC's come out, b/c AM losing that many theaters is unlikely. Good chance a lot of places are shuffling schedules, maybe due to a "stampede" they didn't anticipate?

    The It showtime increase I can buy at least - it's probably doing gangbusters at some locations and took over "horror slots" from Friend Request and/or Flatliners.

  • bump

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