Fall17 Week 6 Bonus Bar & Contenders
Bonus bar set at 70K. Incredibly hard week at first glance, have more movies in contention than I usually do at the start of the week.
TOP BP CONTENDERS
BLADE RUNNER 2049 | 58.7m (New) | Last LRF at $48m. The bar seems extremely high, but so far all of the metrics point to this one at least getting to its LRF, outstanding reviews, dominating social media conversation, solid comps, excellent pre-sales (Check comment #2 in https://fantasymovieleague.com/chatter/topiccomments?boardId=leaders&topicId=352583). We've already seen with It how it's hard to put a ceiling on a movie & that an R rating doesn't matter as much as it used to. Expect a giant Thursday & a low multiplier / high Thursday %.
THE MOUNTAIN BETWEEN US | 10.5m (New) | Last LRF at $11.5m. Some mixed feelings on this one, on one hand the LRF puts it as the clear front-runner & it has a ton of upside. I just wonder how high this one can go if BR dominates the weekend. Based on a book, which doesn't seem to as popular as Sparks or Moyes books. My biggest question is that I can't exactly determine who the audience for this film is. A PG-13 romantic drama seems like it should draw a lot of younger women, the thing is I don't expect Winslet & Elba to be a huge draw for that demo & it seems to lack the pedigree / awards buzz to attract an older audience.
Something like this definitely could be in the cards:
BATTLE OF THE SEXES | 2.2m (-34%) | Specialty releases with solid audience/critic reviews tend to have pretty good holds following their wide expansions (The Big Sick is a recent example ). Could be a candidate for a small expansion given how Fox Searchlight's releases usually follow their wide expansions with at least another smaller expansion.
UPPER MID TIER
KINGSMAN: THE GOLDEN CIRCLE | 9.3m (-45%) | After some mediocre daily's, K2 rode a huge Thursday to Friday increase towards a solid week 2 drop considering the competition from AM. Any other week I'd put it as the BP front-runner given the bar. However, it should have a huge demographic cross-over with BR & seems likely to take one of the biggest impacts of all films.
VICTORIA AND ABDUL | 3.9m (259%) | Would equate to a 5,220 pta at 750 theaters. Solid week 2 hold with its pta only dropping 64% despite a decent expansion. It basically needs to repeat that hold to be a serious contender.
FLATLINERS | 3.1m (-53%) | Last weekend, I was completely wrong at first on this one, thankfully the no Thursday previews & no screening for critics made me totally discard it. I'm doubling down on the early hope, considering the low OW, the low week 2 bar & the fact that it shouldn't split screens given the distributor. OW ended up close to Wish Upon & needs a similar week 2 drop to deliver solid value. Doesn't seem like it should take a big hit from BR considering its OW demo: ""Females under 25 at 31% showed up followed by older females at 27%.".
TIL DEATH DO US PART | 0.7m (-54%) | It has several solid comps & most of them point at a high 50's- low 60's drop. However, given the low OW TC & its solid pta, I could see this one expanding a little bit, which would obviously make it much more interesting:
IT | 10m (-41%) | See K2
MY LITTLE PONY | 8.8m (New) | Last LRF at $7m. This one is going to really hard to evaluate. At fist I had discarded it considered the lowered LRF, but after reading some more, I0m now not entirely sure how to account for the Bronies. They won't make this one a big break-out, but the bar is low enough to where I can't totally discount this one going high enough for contention.
THE LEGO NINJAGO MOVIE | 7.6m (-34%) | After its disappointing OW, there was some hope that it could "rebound" in week 2 considering it had the market all to itself, it disappointed yet again & now gets to share the market with another animated film. MLP should target a different enough audience to where I can see it rising to one of the top 2 tiers, but given how Storks only managed a 39% drop on its third weekend last year, don't see for the moment how it ends up as a serious BP contender.
MOTHER! | 0.6m (-57%) | Volume loss cratered its second weekend despite high expectations from a lot of people. It should see a big enough TC loss considering it was already splitting screens in most theaters.
LOWER MID TIER / WP CONTENDERS
AMERICAN MADE | 9.2m (-45%) | We've now seen K2 & AA post drops over 55%+ on their second weekends while facing strong competition. Don't see why AM would be so much different, considering it faces arguably the most competition out of the 3 films.
AMERICAN ASSASSIN | 1.8m (-45%) | Ton of competition + a decent chance at a big TC cut considering the saturation of R rated targeting a similar demographic in the market.
THE STRAY | 1.2m (New) | Movies starring dogs always scare me. However, just last weekend we saw A Question of Faith just cross $1m on a similar TC. Don't see how this one ends above that considering the lack of history of its distributor & its cast of unknowns.
HOME AGAIN | 1m (-43%) | On a similar situation as AA, with competition from TMBU + an even bigger chance at a huge TC loss.
I am a dumbass and now I totally agree on V&A. Well sorta... - Edited
Cast of unknowns for Stray!!! The lead was the gift shop girl from scrubs. unknowns, pssshhhh
Looks like I need to retool.
Frears does have a solid track record with similar movies:
Focus Features also has a solid track record marketing films that catered to a similar audience:
Here's another comp Phil mentioned that had a similar release pattern:
I think the bar was set a bit too high, but given how well it held in its second weekend, I can't discount it & think it'll end up as a solid value at worst - Edited
Oh come on? BR2049 hitting 60? What's your comp for that?
For BR comp, how about
Bane, what did you think IT would do opening weekend?
@CCR: Oooops, serious mistake in my new Expansion Sheet. I had a PTA drop of 90% with this expansion. Apparently, my vlookup used the wrong row. So I retract my dumb-ass remark.
Closest expansion pattern I could find (so far) was this:
Totally different subject matter however, R-rated comedy instead of PG-13 Historical drama. Focus Features though. This one went from 6 to 87 to 842, with PTA drops of -69% and -47%. V&A had a -64% PTA drop from 4 to 77 theaters. So it is in fact holding better on a bigger expansion. A PTA drop of 47% would make V&A runaway BP with over 5M. Seems a bit high.
Other usable movies:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=tinkertailorsoldierspy.htm (similar expansion but week 4 to 5 - Focus Features)
(similar expansion but week 1 to 2 - Focus Features)
You also have these by Sony Classics and Bleecker Street:
Guess we are down to the same dilemma as last week. Do you base your comp on subject / feel or on expansion?
Based on the numbers it can certainly get there. I am just wondering if it is all that interesting. The PTA may hold up well under the expansion, but how much of a drop will it need to incorporate? - Edited