Fall17 Week 6 Bonus Bar & Contenders

Bonus bar set at 70K. Incredibly hard week at first glance, have more movies in contention than I usually do at the start of the week.

TOP BP CONTENDERS

BLADE RUNNER 2049 | 58.7m (New) | Last LRF at $48m. The bar seems extremely high, but so far all of the metrics point to this one at least getting to its LRF, outstanding reviews, dominating social media conversation, solid comps, excellent pre-sales (Check comment #2 in https://fantasymovieleague.com/chatter/topiccomments?boardId=leaders&topicId=352583). We've already seen with It how it's hard to put a ceiling on a movie & that an R rating doesn't matter as much as it used to. Expect a giant Thursday & a low multiplier / high Thursday %.
THE MOUNTAIN BETWEEN US | 10.5m (New) | Last LRF at $11.5m. Some mixed feelings on this one, on one hand the LRF puts it as the clear front-runner & it has a ton of upside. I just wonder how high this one can go if BR dominates the weekend. Based on a book, which doesn't seem to as popular as Sparks or Moyes books. My biggest question is that I can't exactly determine who the audience for this film is. A PG-13 romantic drama seems like it should draw a lot of younger women, the thing is I don't expect Winslet & Elba to be a huge draw for that demo & it seems to lack the pedigree / awards buzz to attract an older audience.

Something like this definitely could be in the cards:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=laborday.htm

BATTLE OF THE SEXES | 2.2m (-34%) | Specialty releases with solid audience/critic reviews tend to have pretty good holds following their wide expansions (The Big Sick is a recent example ). Could be a candidate for a small expansion given how Fox Searchlight's releases usually follow their wide expansions with at least another smaller expansion.

UPPER MID TIER

KINGSMAN: THE GOLDEN CIRCLE | 9.3m (-45%) | After some mediocre daily's, K2 rode a huge Thursday to Friday increase towards a solid week 2 drop considering the competition from AM. Any other week I'd put it as the BP front-runner given the bar. However, it should have a huge demographic cross-over with BR & seems likely to take one of the biggest impacts of all films.
VICTORIA AND ABDUL | 3.9m (259%) | Would equate to a 5,220 pta at 750 theaters. Solid week 2 hold with its pta only dropping 64% despite a decent expansion. It basically needs to repeat that hold to be a serious contender.
FLATLINERS | 3.1m (-53%) | Last weekend, I was completely wrong at first on this one, thankfully the no Thursday previews & no screening for critics made me totally discard it. I'm doubling down on the early hope, considering the low OW, the low week 2 bar & the fact that it shouldn't split screens given the distributor. OW ended up close to Wish Upon & needs a similar week 2 drop to deliver solid value. Doesn't seem like it should take a big hit from BR considering its OW demo: ""Females under 25 at 31% showed up followed by older females at 27%.".
TIL DEATH DO US PART | 0.7m (-54%) | It has several solid comps & most of them point at a high 50's- low 60's drop. However, given the low OW TC & its solid pta, I could see this one expanding a little bit, which would obviously make it much more interesting:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=addicted.htm


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