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Good Wednesday all, BS here, with your Fall Week 3 BSA. First, a recap of last week's BSA, which saw The Hitman's Bodyguard fail to factor into either the BP race, or a part of the PC. The weekend was dominated by IT, so by early Saturday morning it was pretty apparent that if you were among the roughly 40% of the FMLverse who screened THB, you weren't getting the PC.
The BSA stats now update to the following:
2017: 32 for 37 (86.48%)
Lifetime: 85 for 98 (86.73%)
So, moving on, we are up to the 99th BSA. And, this week's BSA does NOT have 99 Luftballoons in it: https://youtu.be/La4Dcd1aUcE As a result, for Fall Week 3, the BSA advises against:
Whoo boy, taking on the record breaking Horror phenomenon sure seems like a suicide mission, doesn't IT?!? Well, BS is here to guide through the sewers, and avoid accepting any Red Balloons this week. Here's why IT is NOT the anchor you want this week:
No surprises here, as IT received a massive pricing penalty for running away with the BP bonus last week. IT comes with a 2nd week price usually reserved for tentpole debuts! $799 is a huge chunk of change, and with that high price, if you were to screen IT, you are expecting the following:
1) A 2nd weekend total HIGHER than $60 mil, and probably closer to $70 mil
2) The new releases MISS their latest Long Range Forecasts.
3) One of the low end holdovers is your week 3 BP.
In my opinion, that's a lot to ask for. I will admit that I can see #1 happening, and as we saw last week, guaranteed money is hard to pass up (2x Friday players, you know who you are!) But, 2 and 3 are very risky, and in my opinion those risks outweigh the reward.
This week's BSA is as basic as it gets! There's no reviews, or competition, or external factors at hand here. I think that almost all of us can agree that IT will NOT be this weekend's BP. But, what the BSA is really advising against, is that IT will NOT be the anchor in the Week 3 PC. I don't think that any low priced returning movie will be this week's BP, and missing on that will be harmful. Instead, ONE of the new releases WILL be BP, and as such, whichever one that ends up being, well, THAT's your week 3 anchor! As always, good luck! - Edited
Currently, almost 60% of FML is.......Taking IT!
Bravo! I think this is right, and a worthy BSA.
....wow. This might be my least favorite BSA.
You must be much higher on either AA or mother! than I am. There's an argument to be made to play one of those as your anchor for game theory purposes, but unless one of the new releases or HA is the BP, IT is most likely in the PC.
I agree that IT isn't BP this week, but you are leaving yourself wide open to it being the best anchor by default. - Edited
This is gutsy as hell. I appreciate you going out on a limb here and trying to make up for what happened last week but... you're also saying none of the movies on the bottom three lines will win BP with this BSA. I think you might be in trouble, since I'm pretty confident IT will end up in the mid to high 50s and be the defacto anchor in that case. Lineups like IT, 7x WR or IT, mother!, 6x (BP winner from the very bottom) are all in play.
I agree! I'm going with the mother! loaded lineup vs. AA anchored
This is definitely one of the boldest BSA's yet. After, well um, taking some heat last week I applaud you for putting your neck back on the chopping block.
IT has so many routes to being in the Pc which is what makes this one extra bold, but as of now I'm on board with this one (as I'm guessing many sharps are).
Ballsy pick. Im skeptical either AA or mother! are going to make any impact at all on the box office, personally.
For your big 100 next week BSWHITE. You have to go all out. Like 1 anchor pick and 1 filler pick.
I think IT is headed for a weekend in the $65 mil range, and that still won't be enough to be the best anchor.
"Remember I just got back from Amsterdam."
(BSW claims $65M IT not in PC)
"That's a bold statement!"