If FML existed back then....

I was really curious on what the actual box office numbers were like, so I looked up Avatar.


Just looking at the drops alone (you can see the box office on the link), how much does this defy the logic we use? A big release having that small of a drop first week? It only posted 1 sub-30 drop in it's first 11 weeks, and that was after a +26% increase. Week 12 was the first week to be under 10M. How many weeks would Avatar have just confounded FML, and how would the pricing have been? It probably would have nabbed up numerous BPs (at least 6, i think) and been in the PC nearly every week. I don't think any movie has ever had this sort of performance, nor do I think the sequels will replicate this. This was truly a unique beast.

Week 2: -1.8%
Week 3: -9.3%
Week 4: -26.6%
Week 5: +8.1% (4 day)
Week 6: -18.3%
Week 7: -10.5%
Week 8. -26.9%
Week 9: +26% (4 day...+3.3% on the 3 day)
Week 10: -31.2%
Week 11: -15.9%
Week 12: -40.5%
Week 13: -19.6%
Week 14: -38.3%
Week 15: -49.2%
Week 16: -52.1%
Week 17: -13.8%
Week 18: +18.7%
Week 19: -8.2% (approximate last week in play)

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  • Basically a suped up version of HF

  • Week 13 would have been fun. After a 40% drop, most people probably would've thought it was evening out. Then bam!

  • Wow. I want to see something like this happen.

  • This one kept popping up when I was looking into expansions the last couple weeks:

    And yes, Avatar was crazy. But "I don't think any movie has ever had this sort of performance" ummmmm:

    Also, probably shitloads of older movies (like 50s and 60s). More recently, ET:
    http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=et.htm - Edited

  • That would have been even more madness

  • My Big Fat Greek Wedding peaked at #2 in weeks 20-22.


  • Titanic never had a big weekend though, and the drops were a lot more consistent. Most movies that open to a big opening weekend generally have a 50% drop first weekend, or at least 40%. The idea of a film posting a 1.8% drop after a 77M opening weekend is unheard of. Titanic's consistent drops would have been a lot easier to predict and price and while it would have been a titanic juggernaut in FML, I don't think it would have caused near as much problems. Avatar took 4 weekends to drop below 50M after a 76M opening while Star Wars: TFA took 3 weekends after a 248M opening. - Edited

  • That movie has always confounded me. I swear that I saw it in a theater like 2 years after it came out. The weird part is that it was in my local two-screened in my town of under 2,000 people. How?

  • Speaking of back in the day. Are a lot of the people here the same people from the old BOM forums? I've always loved following the box office, and used to browse those forums constantly. I only recently found this site and this game. Love it already.

  • Yeah for Avatar to be the highest grossing film ever, it had to have had continuously solid holds.

    What baffles me is that it wasn't that great of a movie. It was pretty and all. But it's just the exact same plot from Dances with Wolves, just more futuristic.

    I was glad when The Hurt Locker won best movie.

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