Thursday Fandango Check - Summer Week 4

Ok, time to see how showtimes are shaping up for the Nielsen Top 40+1 markets. Data table is below...

analyzer.fmlnerd.com/showtimes

And now, below, I present the FSS gross/show that you'll need to expect to in order for a movie to win the bonus. I get a lot of questions how I derive this, so here's a quick primer on how I calc this...

- Total showtimes are set equal to [Shows/Theater] observed in the top 40+1 multiplied by the total number of theaters showing found on BOMojo and then slightly reduced to account for the fact that many theaters in the top 40+1 have far more screens than theaters in smaller areas. This factor ranges from 70%-98% and depends on the shows/theater.
- If the theater count is known at the time of this writing, I use that theater count as the national number. If not, I take the observed theater change in the top 40+1 data and apply it to the national number with some adjustment based on how the Top 40+1 week over week dropped compared to the national drop. If the theater count is not known and it's a platform release expanding, I assume the Top 40+1 represents 40% of the total locations (based off past observation).
- BO Receipts are set equal to CCR's Bonus Bar unless new information necessitates a change.
- For new releases, Thursday nights are ignored since not all locations show Thursday previews. That means I have to make a bit of a guess at how much of the take we can expect from Thursday night for new movies, and then I exclude it. For the sake of transparency, I'll start including my Thursday night gross guess as well.

Bonus Bar will remain at $105k.

Movie | Gross/show | Change from LW | Thursday Gross
Transformers 5 | $616/show |DEBUT
Wonder Woman | $438/show |-16.5%
Cars 3 | $335/show |-35.2%
All Eyez On Me | $289/show |-48.2%
The Mummy | $165/show |-12.6%
POTC: Dead Men Tell No Tales | $202/show |-20.5%
47 Meters Down | $175/show |-43.1%
Captain Underpants | $175/show |3.0%
Rough Night | $92/show |-39.9%
Tubelight | $903/show |DEBUT
Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 | $219/show |-16.1%
Beatriz at Dinner | $187/show |DEBUT
Megan Leavey | $247/show |62.3%
It Comes at Night | $237/show |144.6%
The Book of Henry | $185/show |4.6%

- 95k shows for Transformers is nearly identical to Paramount's big 2016 offering, Star Trek Beyond. STB managed $567/show, but T5 needs to be closer to Kong ($615/show) from back in March to make the BP.
- 4k shows for Tubelight puts it at about 300 more than Ae Dil Hai Mishkul had over Diwali 2016. ADHM grossed $603/show, so Tubelight needs to 1.5x that to have a shot.
- 9500 shows for Beatriz at Dinner, which is about 1500 more than Book of Henry had last weekend. BaD's bar is pretty low at $187/show, which is almost exactly what Sleight grossed its OW. 20th Century Women grossed $165/show back in January when it was in FML.
- Both The Mummy and Capt Underpants cut a lot of show bloat, but both remain over 4 shows/theater, so they're still getting their full alottment.
- Megan Leavey & It Comes at Night appear to be losing over 60% of their shows and theaters.
- No expansion for Book of Henry in the cards it'd appear.


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