Hedging with Henry - Awards Week 12

This is a weekly column for a specific community here at FML: the hedgers. Chasing the Perfect Cineplex (PC) can cause wild swings in your standings, especially in your private leagues. You don't win poker by going "all in" every hand; you strategically make wise bets and wait for the right hand. Many of us have had great success simply hedging our bets, regularly coming in 2nd or 3rd each week, and winning our private league. This is a conversation for those people.

HEDGING COMPETITION: To qualify you must:
1) Post your top 5 BP contenders and your hedge recommendation (which MUST include 3 of your top 5 BP Contenders) by lock time to this post.
2) You must enter the hedge and BP contenders in this Google sheet (add your name at the top at the end if you haven't already). Enter a 1 next to each of your BP contenders; enter the number of screens per cinema for your hedge, and enter the day you post your hedge to the chatter (chatter posts will be used to confirm submissions):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qdBbbGDbsZd3qWpSoS1Rev3irauAq6Ab3txO2oxmmew/edit?usp=sharing#gid=542723415
3) 1MM per day bonus for posting your final submission before Friday to this post (e.g. 2MM for posting on Wednesday, 1MM for Thursday). Edited posts get no bonus (instead edit and remove content of prior post and post again so your unedited post's timestamp makes it clear when your submission was).

- Top scoring cinema (minus PC bonus) and BP Predictor each gets a trophy!
- Most trophies in a season gets a prize valued at $5 or more! Season tiebreaker will be the best sum of cinema values (minus PC bonus) from submitted weeks - more submissions means you are more likely to win the tiebreaker.

ESTIMATED BEST PERFORMER (BP) CANDIDATES: TBD

ESTIMATED WORST PERFORMER CANDIDATES: TBD

Reasoning for your hedge: TBD

RECOMMENDED HEDGE:
Confidence level:
ALT HEDGE:
Confidence level:


BP DATA (see spreadsheet for full data)

Spreadsheet of data:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qdBbbGDbsZd3qWpSoS1Rev3irauAq6Ab3txO2oxmmew/edit?usp=sharing


SECRETS OF THE HEDGE:
1. Your goal is to get 2 screens of the bonus winner in your Cineplex
2. Try and get 3 of the top 5 bonus contenders in your Cineplex
3. Don't over-diversify; a good hedge on a normal week has 4-5 movies in it
4. Use as many Bux as you can to maximize potential ROI
5. Stay away from potential Worst Performers
6. Be ok losing out on breakout performances, as long as you don't get sunk by surprise bombs
7. Know when to abandon the hedge and go for the PC

METRICS OF SUCCESS:
1. You have the BP in your Cineplex
2. 75% of your movies are in the top 7 performers for the week
3. You are in the top 10-15% of the league you care about each week
4. You accurately gauged the ranges and estimates for the movies
5. You accurately gauged the risks for the week

"The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing." -James Collins, Good to Great

P.S. If you want to join Switzerland to have some people to bounce ideas off of to try and identify the most accurate predictions, come on down: http://bit.ly/2h313x0


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  • AWARDS WEEK 11 IN REVIEW:
    Another solid week thanks to a very clarifying Friday morning. We even came close to the PC! Go team! Now with only two weeks to go, this week is the week to make your move if you need to make up ground. Otherwise, hedges with PC potential are everyone's best friend. Good luck to all. Hopefully we'll remain in the top 200 and once again have a strong finish to a good season of hedging.

    This brings our success rate to 23 for 29 (79%) with 2 PCs (ALT hedges included are 25 for 29 [86%] with 4 PCs).

    The Perfect Cinema (minus bonus): Wick x4, Split x2, Lion x2 - $152,697,582

    10% line - $148,702,137
    15% line - $147,637,454

    RECOMMENDED HEDGE: Wickx4, Split x2, La La, Lion - $151,690,783
    ALT RECOMMENDED HEDGE: 50SD, Wick x2, Split x2, Lion x3 - $144,383,196

    Let's look at our metrics of success:
    1. You have the BP in your Cineplex - Rec (Yes); Alt (Yes)
    2. 75% of your movies are in the top 7 performers for the week - Rec (Yes); Alt (No)
    3. You are in the top 15% of the league you care about each week - Rec (Yes); Alt (No)
    4. You accurately gauged the ranges (and estimates) for the movies: 10 for 15 (within ~10% margin of error). Overall did fine, knew to avoid Lego and all the lower priced movies. Pretty close with 50SD, and knew we were being conservative on Wick. However Lion blew us away, and ADP, and even Hidden surprised as well.
    5. You accurately gauged the risks for the week: Yes. With the clear consensus on Friday morning that Wickx4 was the only way to anchor our Cineplex we took the dive and came pretty darn close to a PC.

    AWARDS:

    Trophy for Top Hedge Cinema: Mr Scorpio!
    Trophy for BP Contender Prediction goes to: SCV and Dylan/!

    Here is your trophy!
    http://i758.photobucket.com/albums/xx221/B_Oceander/GIF_Animations/winner-trophy.gif

    Feel free to check my math and view top 1-7 rankings on the second sheet of this spreadsheet:
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VrAso1Fq2jRBzeD_IOFstND72yjrb2j1kRTLC6hpBAA/edit?usp=sharing#gid=542723415



    SEASON TROPHY RANKINGS:

    Phil's Phun: 3
    Uldaddy: 3
    DB22: 3
    BDC: 3
    CCR: 3
    Dylan/: 3
    SCV: 3
    BB: 2
    Jordan Michael B: 1
    FMLDylan: 1
    Inglorious: 1
    Melvin: 1
    Atomo-Vision: 1
    Mr Scorpio: 1

  • SEASON CINEMA RANKINGS:

    1 - SCV - $1,126,468,541
    2 - BB: There is no Try - $1,114,242,670
    3 - Dylan/ - $1,107,531,740
    4 - Uldaddy - $1,103,091,004
    5 - DB22 - $1,102,994,321
    6 - Furiosa - $1,101,530,543
    7 - Chalmskinn - $1,093,465,237
    8 - Darkroom - $1,087,864,849
    9 - Mr Scorpio - $1,083,012,830
    10 - Atomo-vision - $1,081,758,369
    11 - CCR - $1,066,685,548
    12 - BDC - $927,382,054
    13 - M T Mopboy - $863,667,991
    14 - killahs - $860,447,495
    15 - Bowser - $788,105,394
    16 - Anepic - $732,984,933
    17 - Metatron - $683,032,031
    18 - Phil's Phun - $666,125,684
    19 - AreYouNotEntertained - $643,431,242
    20 - INGY - $528,659,835
    21 - DrapersDriveIn - $495,997,468
    22 - FMLDylan - $434,632,240
    23 - Smithodeon - $377,187,468
    24 - FACE/TOFF - $274,322,462
    25 - Astotti - $158,270,170
    26 - SpursMamatova - $130,143,458
    27 - Hot Fez - $120,404,812
    28 - Miraclemet - $80,755,369
    29 - Jordan Michael B. - $65,504,808
    30 - Digifreak - $64,504,808
    31 - HMG: Hoosier - $59,217,438
    32 - Club Silencio - $30,139,437



    SEASON BP PREDICTION RANKINGS:

    1 - BB: There is no Try - 579
    2 - CCR - 570
    3 - Dylan/ - 568
    4 - SCV - 561
    5 - DB22 - 560
    6 - Chalmskinn - 556
    7 - Atomo-vision - 552
    8 - Uldaddy - 547
    9 - Darkroom - 546
    10 - Furiosa - 542
    11 - Mr Scorpio - 507
    12 - BDC - 506
    13 - killahs - 493
    14 - M T Mopboy - 471
    15 - Bowser - 403
    16 - Anepic - 391
    17 - Phil's Phun - 366
    18 - Metatron - 298
    19 - AreYouNotEntertained - 296
    20 - DrapersDriveIn - 277
    21 - INGY - 221
    22 - FMLDylan - 180
    23 - FACE/TOFF - 148
    24 - Smithodeon - 114
    25 - Hot Fez - 102
    26 - Astotti - 91
    27 - Jordan Michael B. - 57
    28 - Digifreak - 55
    29 - Miraclemet - 55
    30 - HMG: Hoosier - 43
    31 - Club Silencio - 39
    32 - SpursMamatova - 0

  • With just 2 weeks to go, we have a SEVEN WAY TIE for first place! Crazy!

    And with 4 trophies left to acquire, it is still anyone's game. We could have someone jump in this week for the first time and snatch up all 4 trophies and WIN! Or will one of our 7 leaders snag the win?

    If the 7-way tie holds, remember it is the highest scoring hedgeplex that wins the day, which currently has SCV beating out BB:, Dylan, Uldaddy and DB22. So it is shaping up to be an interesting end to the season for the hedging competition! - Edited

  • So it's completely possible that I win both categories, but not the season...??? #notawesome

  • Updated on Thursday - Edited

  • Top Five:
    SPLIT
    HIDDEN FIGURES
    JOHN WICK 2
    A DOG'S PURPOSE
    LION

    Hedge:
    SPLIT x2
    JOHN WICK 2 x2
    LA LA LAND x1
    A DOG'S PURPOSE x1
    LION x2

    Unable to post to Google Sheets - Blocked at Work. Posting 02/15 2:49 PM Central.

  • Thursday update:

    Top 5: Subbing out R1 for Lion...HF, LLL, Lion, Split, Lego

    Hedge: 1x Lego, 1x HF, 2x LLL, 4x Lion

    It's not that I'm more optimistic in Lion than the other potential BP plays, it's more that playing it 4x fits best with Lego while also allowing screens of my 2 other favorites for BP.

  • TOP 5
    Split
    HF
    ADP
    LLL
    Lion

    HEDGE
    1x Lego, 1x HF, 2x LLL, 4x Lion

    (I always feel weird when I end up with the same hedge as the person above me but this is genuinely what I'm feeling lol)

  • Crunch time baby!

    Top 5: Split, HF, ADP, LLL, Lion

    Hedge: Batman, Split, LLL, Lion x5

  • Top 5:
    HF
    LLL
    Lion
    ADP
    Split

    Hedge:
    1xLego 2xADP xLLL 4xLion

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