Hedging with Henry - Awards Week 12
This is a weekly column for a specific community here at FML: the hedgers. Chasing the Perfect Cineplex (PC) can cause wild swings in your standings, especially in your private leagues. You don't win poker by going "all in" every hand; you strategically make wise bets and wait for the right hand. Many of us have had great success simply hedging our bets, regularly coming in 2nd or 3rd each week, and winning our private league. This is a conversation for those people.
HEDGING COMPETITION: To qualify you must:
1) Post your top 5 BP contenders and your hedge recommendation (which MUST include 3 of your top 5 BP Contenders) by lock time to this post.
2) You must enter the hedge and BP contenders in this Google sheet (add your name at the top at the end if you haven't already). Enter a 1 next to each of your BP contenders; enter the number of screens per cinema for your hedge, and enter the day you post your hedge to the chatter (chatter posts will be used to confirm submissions):
3) 1MM per day bonus for posting your final submission before Friday to this post (e.g. 2MM for posting on Wednesday, 1MM for Thursday). Edited posts get no bonus (instead edit and remove content of prior post and post again so your unedited post's timestamp makes it clear when your submission was).
- Top scoring cinema (minus PC bonus) and BP Predictor each gets a trophy!
- Most trophies in a season gets a prize valued at $5 or more! Season tiebreaker will be the best sum of cinema values (minus PC bonus) from submitted weeks - more submissions means you are more likely to win the tiebreaker.
ESTIMATED BEST PERFORMER (BP) CANDIDATES: TBD
ESTIMATED WORST PERFORMER CANDIDATES: TBD
Reasoning for your hedge: TBD
BP DATA (see spreadsheet for full data)
Spreadsheet of data:
SECRETS OF THE HEDGE:
1. Your goal is to get 2 screens of the bonus winner in your Cineplex
2. Try and get 3 of the top 5 bonus contenders in your Cineplex
3. Don't over-diversify; a good hedge on a normal week has 4-5 movies in it
4. Use as many Bux as you can to maximize potential ROI
5. Stay away from potential Worst Performers
6. Be ok losing out on breakout performances, as long as you don't get sunk by surprise bombs
7. Know when to abandon the hedge and go for the PC
METRICS OF SUCCESS:
1. You have the BP in your Cineplex
2. 75% of your movies are in the top 7 performers for the week
3. You are in the top 10-15% of the league you care about each week
4. You accurately gauged the ranges and estimates for the movies
5. You accurately gauged the risks for the week
"The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing." -James Collins, Good to Great
P.S. If you want to join Switzerland to have some people to bounce ideas off of to try and identify the most accurate predictions, come on down: http://bit.ly/2h313x0
AWARDS WEEK 11 IN REVIEW:
Another solid week thanks to a very clarifying Friday morning. We even came close to the PC! Go team! Now with only two weeks to go, this week is the week to make your move if you need to make up ground. Otherwise, hedges with PC potential are everyone's best friend. Good luck to all. Hopefully we'll remain in the top 200 and once again have a strong finish to a good season of hedging.
This brings our success rate to 23 for 29 (79%) with 2 PCs (ALT hedges included are 25 for 29 [86%] with 4 PCs).
The Perfect Cinema (minus bonus): Wick x4, Split x2, Lion x2 - $152,697,582
10% line - $148,702,137
15% line - $147,637,454
RECOMMENDED HEDGE: Wickx4, Split x2, La La, Lion - $151,690,783
ALT RECOMMENDED HEDGE: 50SD, Wick x2, Split x2, Lion x3 - $144,383,196
Let's look at our metrics of success:
1. You have the BP in your Cineplex - Rec (Yes); Alt (Yes)
2. 75% of your movies are in the top 7 performers for the week - Rec (Yes); Alt (No)
3. You are in the top 15% of the league you care about each week - Rec (Yes); Alt (No)
4. You accurately gauged the ranges (and estimates) for the movies: 10 for 15 (within ~10% margin of error). Overall did fine, knew to avoid Lego and all the lower priced movies. Pretty close with 50SD, and knew we were being conservative on Wick. However Lion blew us away, and ADP, and even Hidden surprised as well.
5. You accurately gauged the risks for the week: Yes. With the clear consensus on Friday morning that Wickx4 was the only way to anchor our Cineplex we took the dive and came pretty darn close to a PC.
Trophy for Top Hedge Cinema: Mr Scorpio!
Trophy for BP Contender Prediction goes to: SCV and Dylan/!
Here is your trophy!
Feel free to check my math and view top 1-7 rankings on the second sheet of this spreadsheet:
SEASON TROPHY RANKINGS:
Phil's Phun: 3
Jordan Michael B: 1
Mr Scorpio: 1
SEASON CINEMA RANKINGS:
1 - SCV - $1,126,468,541
2 - BB: There is no Try - $1,114,242,670
3 - Dylan/ - $1,107,531,740
4 - Uldaddy - $1,103,091,004
5 - DB22 - $1,102,994,321
6 - Furiosa - $1,101,530,543
7 - Chalmskinn - $1,093,465,237
8 - Darkroom - $1,087,864,849
9 - Mr Scorpio - $1,083,012,830
10 - Atomo-vision - $1,081,758,369
11 - CCR - $1,066,685,548
12 - BDC - $927,382,054
13 - M T Mopboy - $863,667,991
14 - killahs - $860,447,495
15 - Bowser - $788,105,394
16 - Anepic - $732,984,933
17 - Metatron - $683,032,031
18 - Phil's Phun - $666,125,684
19 - AreYouNotEntertained - $643,431,242
20 - INGY - $528,659,835
21 - DrapersDriveIn - $495,997,468
22 - FMLDylan - $434,632,240
23 - Smithodeon - $377,187,468
24 - FACE/TOFF - $274,322,462
25 - Astotti - $158,270,170
26 - SpursMamatova - $130,143,458
27 - Hot Fez - $120,404,812
28 - Miraclemet - $80,755,369
29 - Jordan Michael B. - $65,504,808
30 - Digifreak - $64,504,808
31 - HMG: Hoosier - $59,217,438
32 - Club Silencio - $30,139,437
SEASON BP PREDICTION RANKINGS:
1 - BB: There is no Try - 579
2 - CCR - 570
3 - Dylan/ - 568
4 - SCV - 561
5 - DB22 - 560
6 - Chalmskinn - 556
7 - Atomo-vision - 552
8 - Uldaddy - 547
9 - Darkroom - 546
10 - Furiosa - 542
11 - Mr Scorpio - 507
12 - BDC - 506
13 - killahs - 493
14 - M T Mopboy - 471
15 - Bowser - 403
16 - Anepic - 391
17 - Phil's Phun - 366
18 - Metatron - 298
19 - AreYouNotEntertained - 296
20 - DrapersDriveIn - 277
21 - INGY - 221
22 - FMLDylan - 180
23 - FACE/TOFF - 148
24 - Smithodeon - 114
25 - Hot Fez - 102
26 - Astotti - 91
27 - Jordan Michael B. - 57
28 - Digifreak - 55
29 - Miraclemet - 55
30 - HMG: Hoosier - 43
31 - Club Silencio - 39
32 - SpursMamatova - 0
With just 2 weeks to go, we have a SEVEN WAY TIE for first place! Crazy!
And with 4 trophies left to acquire, it is still anyone's game. We could have someone jump in this week for the first time and snatch up all 4 trophies and WIN! Or will one of our 7 leaders snag the win?
If the 7-way tie holds, remember it is the highest scoring hedgeplex that wins the day, which currently has SCV beating out BB:, Dylan, Uldaddy and DB22. So it is shaping up to be an interesting end to the season for the hedging competition! - Edited
So it's completely possible that I win both categories, but not the season...??? #notawesome
Updated on Thursday - Edited
JOHN WICK 2
A DOG'S PURPOSE
JOHN WICK 2 x2
LA LA LAND x1
A DOG'S PURPOSE x1
Unable to post to Google Sheets - Blocked at Work. Posting 02/15 2:49 PM Central.
Top 5: Subbing out R1 for Lion...HF, LLL, Lion, Split, Lego
Hedge: 1x Lego, 1x HF, 2x LLL, 4x Lion
It's not that I'm more optimistic in Lion than the other potential BP plays, it's more that playing it 4x fits best with Lego while also allowing screens of my 2 other favorites for BP.
1x Lego, 1x HF, 2x LLL, 4x Lion
(I always feel weird when I end up with the same hedge as the person above me but this is genuinely what I'm feeling lol)
Crunch time baby!
Top 5: Split, HF, ADP, LLL, Lion
Hedge: Batman, Split, LLL, Lion x5
1xLego 2xADP xLLL 4xLion